全球电动汽车展望2025_173页_4mb

Global EV Outlook 2025 Summary

1 Introduction

The International Energy Agency (IEA) presents the Global EV Outlook 2025, an annual report detailing the state of electric mobility worldwide. The IEA is an energy organization with 32 member countries, known for its work on energy policies and market analysis.

This report examines trends in electric vehicles (EVs), including cars, light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, and two/three-wheelers, under stated policies (STEPS). It assesses future prospects up to 2030, incorporating market trends, policy developments, and technological advancements.

2 Key Findings on EV Markets

🚗 Electric Car Trends (Light-Duty Vehicles):

• Global EV sales exceeded 17 million in 2024, with a 25% year-on-year increase, reaching over 20 million by 2030.
• China remains the largest market, responsible for over 55% of global EV sales, achieving an electric car sales share of approximately 80% by 2030.
• Europe and the US also show strong growth, but policy changes in the US may slow adoption in 2025.
• Africa and Southeast Asia are emerging hotspots, with record sales growth driven by affordability and imports from China.

🚛 Other Light-Duty Electric Vehicles:

• Electric buses and trucks are rapidly growing, especially in cities and for freight applications.
• Battery electric buses are becoming mainstream in Europe and China, with electric trucks seeing significant price improvements.
• Latin America shows impressive growth in electric bus deployments.

🔋 Battery Demand:

• Global battery demand reached nearly 1 TWh in 2024, driven mostly by electric cars.
• China dominates battery manufacturing, accounting for 80% of global production.
• Lifepo4 batteries are gaining market share due to lower costs, particularly in Chinese EVs.

⚡ Charging Infrastructure:

• Public charging stations doubled in 2024, reaching over 1.3 million globally.
• Ultra-fast charging (≥150 kW) is growing rapidly, accounting for nearly 10% of public chargers.
• China leads in charging deployment, but Europe is catching up with national infrastructure targets.

📉 Economic and Policy Uncertainties:

• Tariffs on Chinese EVs in the US may impact sales, but domestic production is growing.
• Battery price declines persisted in 2024, though faster in China.
• Policy shifts in the US could reduce EV adoption incentives, potentially slowing growth.

💰 Oil Displacement:

• Electric vehicles displaced over 5 million barrels of oil daily by 2030, enhancing energy security.

3 Outlook for 2030 and Beyond

• By 2030, EVs will account for 250 million units globally, with electric cars making up over 90%.
• China will remain the largest market, but growth elsewhere will accelerate.
• Battery costs will continue falling, increasing EV affordability.
• Heavy-duty truck electrification will surge in the next decade, projected to reach 30% of new heavy truck sales.

4 Conclusion

The global EV transition is accelerating, driven by policy support in key markets and declining costs. While China leads production and deployment, other regions are increasingly embracing electrification. Challenges remain, including supply chain resilience and grid integration. By 2030, EVs could meet 25% of global car sales and transform energy and mobility systems worldwide.