2004-03-28-皮尤-Bush_Support_Steady_in_Wake_of_Clarke_Criticisms_14页_43kb

Election Poll Summary: Bush vs. Kerry March 2004

Overall Race Status

• Tie in Head-to-Head: The presidential race between George W. Bush and John Kerry has become a statistical tie, with support split between 46% for Bush and 47% for Kerry among registered voters.
• Slowing Kerry Decline: Kerry’s lead narrowed significantly from 52% to 43% mid-March, showing reduced support on key issues and overall momentum.

Bush’s Enduring Strength

• National Security & Crisis Leadership: Bush maintains a significant lead on terrorism (53% vs. 29%) and the ability to handle crises, undeterred by criticism of his pre-9/11 actions.
• Personal Qualities: Voters consistently rank Bush higher in traits like "willing to take a stand" (60%) and strong leadership (51%), trailing Kerry.

Declining Kerry Momentum

• Domestic Issues Narrowing: Kerry’s support slipped on healthcare, economy, jobs and trade, though foreign policy edges him ahead (44% vs. 38%). Perception of Kerry slipping on terrorism and foreign policy questions remains static.
• Growing Uncertainty: With 37% of swing voters uncertain about candidates, backlash against Kerry does not match early campaign gains.

Key Observations

• The critique of Bush’s actions before 9/11 did not halt his support, but Kerry also slipped, diluting his advantage. Voter confidence in both candidates eroded slightly across multiple policy areas.