2025-06-09-Jefferies-每周熔炉_7页_295kb

Equity Research: Australia Materials (Steel) - June 9, 2025

Current Market Analysis

The report analyzes the U.S. steel industry, focusing on Nucor Corp. (NUE). Key data includes a weekly increase in NUE's HRC price to US$981/mt (+2% year-on-year), with a NorthStar spot spread at US$455/t (+2% week-over-week). Asian HRC prices are at US$473/t, showing slight volatility. Forecasts indicate a FY2026 NorthStar spot spread of US$500/t, supported by ongoing price hikes in response to U.S. 50% steel tariffs.

Price Trends and Forecasts

• US HRC spot prices: 1 week +1%, 1 month -1%, 3 months -3%, 6 months up 28%, 1 year up 21%.
• NorthStar spot spread: Similar trends with moderate growth over the review period.
• Predictions suggest current spot levels are below FY2026 estimates, implying a potential headwind for NUE's EBIT if spreads remain stable.

Risks and Uncertainties

Major risk factors include a possible U.S. economic downturn reducing steel demand, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, volatility in the Chinese steel market, and slower-than-anticipated U.S. infrastructure spending. The 50% steel tariffs may drive further price increases but could also affect import parity in the U.S.

Company Valuation

Nucor Corp. is assigned a HOLD rating with a price target of US$122.53. Valuation is based on a risk-adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple. Analysts highlight that current prices remain above import parity levels, supporting limited supply dynamics and elevated service center inventories. The FY2026 spread forecast could impact the company's financial performance if spreads do not recover from current levels.

Analyst Notes

Jefferies analysts provide detailed assessments, noting that while tariffs may provide short-term pricing support, long-term risks involve global steel market saturation. The report emphasizes the need for investors to monitor tariff implementations and economic cycles. Market trends since 2018 show resilience but range-bound conditions in Asia, with U.S. prices positioned to align closer to forecasts in the medium term.