2025-06-09-Jefferies-美国_运输与物流_6月11日（周三）电话会议Haul_Hustle现场每周网络直播_8页_1mb

Document Summary: Haul & Hustle Live Webcast and Industrials Sector Analysis

Webcast Overview

• Date and Time: Wednesday, June 11, at 3:00 PM EST
• Duration: 30 minutes
• Participants:
  • Omar Nokta (Shipping analyst)
  • Stephanie Moore (T&L and Business Services analyst)
  • Joe Hafling (T&L analyst)
  • Sid Sandilya (Industrials equity strategist)
• Topics Covered:
  • Recent operating updates from LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) carriers
  • Rail weekly volume trends and projections
  • East and West Coast import data and trade expectations
  • Intra-quarter data comparisons and management guidance
  • Interactive Q&A session with the audience

Key Investment Insights

ArcBest Corp (ARCB)

• Price Target (PT): $75
• Valuation: Based on 19x 2025 EPS and 12.5x 2026 EPS
• Valuation Method: SOTP (Sum of the Parts) - 5x 2026 EBITDA for Asset-Based business, 8x 2026 EBITDA for Asset-Light business
• Risks: Economic recession, increased competition, labor and union negotiations, litigation exposure, regulatory changes, and acquisition integration

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL)

• Price Target (PT): $165
• Valuation: Based on ~33.5x 2025 EPS and ~28.5x 2026 EPS
• Valuation Method: SOTP, aligns with non-union LTL peer group
• Risks: Economic recession, increased competition, irrational behavior, driver and dockworker retention challenges

Saia Inc (SAIA)

• Price Target (PT): $350
• Valuation: Based on 39x 2025 EPS and 26x 2026 EPS
• Valuation Method: SOTP, at a discount to non-union peer ODFL
• Risks: Economic recession, increased competition, irrational behavior, driver and dockworker retention, potential litigation exposure, regulatory changes

XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO)

• Price Target (PT): $135
• Valuation: Based on 37x 2025 EPS and 30x 2026 EPS
• Valuation Method: SOTP - 14x 2026 EBITDA for North America LTL, 9x 2026 EBITDA for Europe
• Risks: Macroeconomic risks, acquisition integration risk, currency fluctuations, and exchange rate impacts

Investment Recommendation Record

• Recommendation Published: June 9, 2025, 16:28 PM
• Rating and Price Target History:
  • BUY: 2107 (60.51%), 373 (17.70%), 121 (5.74%)
  • HOLD: 1224 (35.15%), 112 (9.15%), 22 (1.80%)
  • UNDERPERFORM: 151 (4.34%), 4 (2.65%), 3 (1.99%)

Ratings and Price Target Methodology

• Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more within 12 months
• Hold: Expected total return of plus or minus 15% within 12 months
• Underperform: Expected total return of 10% or less within 12 months
• NR (Not Recommended): Temporary suspension of rating and PT
• CS (Coverage Suspended): Coverage has been suspended
• NC (Not Covered): Not covered by Jefferies
• Restricted: Certain communication restrictions apply due to company policy or regulations
• Monitor: No financial projections or investment opinions provided

Valuation Methodologies Used

• Market capitalization
• Maturity, growth/value
• Volatility and expected total return
• Discounted cash flow (DCF)
• EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF), free cash flow (FCF)
• EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/CF, P/FCF
• Premium/discount to average group EV/EBITDA and P/E
• Sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns, and return on equity (ROE)

Jefferies Franchise Picks

• Include only Buy rated stocks
• Based on fundamental analysis, analyst conviction, differentiated analysis, risk/reward ratio, and investment themes
• Not sector-based, but may be categorized as growth or value
• Stocks are added or removed based on changing reasons, achieved returns, or stop loss triggers
• Stop loss thresholds: 15% for stocks with 120-day volatility in bottom quartile of S&P stocks, 20% otherwise

Important Disclosures

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies
• Reports are not tailored to individual investors and should be considered only as one factor in investment decisions
• Jefferies may seek to do business with covered companies, which could affect objectivity
• No guarantees of returns or performance
• Exchange rate fluctuations may affect returns
• Forward-looking statements are subject to change based on market conditions
• No suitability analysis is performed by Jefferies

Legal and Regulatory Information

• The report is prepared by Jefferies personnel and may be distributed by various entities depending on the jurisdiction
• In the US: Prepared by Jefferies LLC, an SEC-registered broker-dealer
• In Canada: Intended for professional or institutional investors only
• In UK/EU: Intended for persons with suitable professional experience
• In Singapore: Intended for accredited, expert, or institutional investors
• In Dubai: Intended for Professional Clients only
• In India: Provided by Jefferies India Private Limited, with relevant SEBI and NISM certifications
• In Australia: Directed at wholesale clients under the Corporations Act 2001
• In Japan: Provided to institutional investors only
• In Hong Kong: Intended for professional investors only
• In Taiwan: Distribution is prohibited
• No review or endorsement by any regulatory authority in the PRC or other jurisdictions

Conclusion

• The webcast provides insights into LTL carriers, rail volume trends, and import data, with special focus on ArcBest, Old Dominion, Saia, and XPO
• Analysts offer price targets and investment outlooks, highlighting risks and opportunities across the industrials sector
• The document serves as a research report, not investment advice, and includes important legal disclosures regarding conflicts of interest and regulatory compliance