20140429-高盛-China_Focus__Acceleration_in_growth_on_weak_comparator_38页_805kb

报告摘要

Summary of Global: Consumer Staples Report

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of bi-monthly retail sales data in China for the period of January/February 2014, focusing on the performance of multinational corporations (MNCs) and domestic players in the consumer staples sector. The data highlights the overall growth trends, market share changes, and the impact of various factors such as pricing, volume, and seasonal effects on different categories.

Main Trends

Overall Growth: The weighted-average sales growth for 16 key categories in January/February 2014 was +5.6%, which is higher than the +1.7% growth in November/December 2013 and the +4.4% 12-month average. However, this growth was largely driven by a weaker comparable base in 2013, and on a two-year compounded basis, the growth decelerated to +1.6%.
Sector Performance:
- Food & Beverage saw a slight acceleration in growth, +5.3%, surpassing HPC growth of +5.1%, due to a weaker 2013 base after a poor CNY period.
- HPC (Household & Personal Care) showed a generally positive trend, except for continued declines in Diapers and a slowdown in Laundry Detergents growth.
Market Share Dynamics:
- MNCs' aggregate market share increased by 10 basis points to 50.4%, up from the 12-month average of 50.3%.
- MNCs gained significant share in Shampoo (+110bp) and Baby Food (+460bp), while facing declines in Infant Formula and Skincare.
Key Players:
- Unilever (Buy) saw continued share gains in Shampoo and Laundry Detergents, with +14.3% weighted sales growth.
- L’Oreal (CL-Buy) experienced shampoo growth of +39% which offset skincare declines.
- Beiersdorf (Sell) saw a +17.5% price hike in skincare, which helped extend NIVEA's price premium, though shampoo growth slowed.
- Henkel (Neutral) continued to gain in Shampoo and Laundry Detergents, showing a +7.9% MNC growth rate.
- Kimberly-Clark (Sell) experienced sales growth turning to declines, with a slight decline in Diapers market share.
- Colgate-Palmolive (Neutral) showed relative strength in Toothpaste and Shampoo.
- Want Want (Buy) had 52% growth in Drinking Yoghurt, reaching 1.9% market share.
- Tingyi (Buy) and UPC (Buy) showed stabilizing and rebound in RTD Tea ASPs respectively.
- Mengniu (Neutral) had self-branded infant formula and Drinking Yoghurt outperforming the market.
- Danone (Neutral) continued to see declines in infant formula growth, with a -70% yoy decline.
- Coca-Cola (Neutral) saw improved sequential trends in Carbonated Soft Drinks, while PepsiCo (Neutral) faced accelerating share losses.

Key Categories and Performance

Category	Weighted Avg Sales Growth	12-Month Avg Sales Growth	Notes
Lollipops	+3.6%	+1.3%	Growth skewed by price
Chocolate Confectionary	+17.2%	+17.5%	Strong growth in value
Sugar Confectionary	+4.6%	+6.8%	Mixed performance
Biscuits	+8.3%	+5.7%	Moderate growth
Soy Sauce	+12.5%	+13.3%	Stable growth
Infant Formula	-9.0%	-4.8%	Continued decline
Drinking Yogurt	+7.0%	+0.1%	Improved performance
Carbonated Soft Drinks	+4.4%	+2.1%	Seasonal improvement
RTD Tea	+2.3%	+0.9%	Stabilizing ASPs
Baby Food	-8.8%	-2.3%	Decline in value
Shampoo	+18.3%	+15.1%	Strong volume growth
Laundry Detergents	+6.8%	+8.1%	Growth slowdown
Facial Moisturizers	+2.6%	-25.8%	Mixed performance
Blades & Razors	+11.9%	+9.7%	Strong growth
Toothpaste	+7.1%	+8.1%	Moderate growth
Diapers	-7.0%	-3.9%	Continued decline

Key Takeaways

Seasonal Impact: The growth in January/February was driven by a weaker comparable base, particularly in the context of the Chinese New Year (CNY) in 2013.
Channel Shifts: The data skew to tier-1 and tier-2 cities, while growth is more pronounced in lower-tier cities and online/specialty channels.
Inventory Impact: Slowing demand growth can be compounded by inventory reductions, as seen in past performance of companies like MDLZ and Danone.
Price vs. Volume Dynamics: While some categories showed strong volume growth, others experienced price declines, indicating mixed market conditions.
Market Share Shifts: MNCs continued to gain market share in certain categories, but faced challenges in others such as infant formula and skincare.

Investment Implications

Unilever (UNc.AS, ULVR.L): Continued share gains in shampoo and laundry.
L’Oreal (OREP.PA): Strong shampoo growth compensates for skincare weakness.
Beiersdorf (BEIG.DE): NIVEA extends price premium, but shampoo growth slows.
Henkel (HNKG_p.DE): Shampoo growth accelerates.
Want Want (0151.HK): Focus on new products drives topline growth.
Tingyi (0322.HK) and UPC (0220.HK): RTD Tea ASPs stabilize and rebound.
Mengniu (2319.HK): Drinking Yoghurt outperforms, while IMF continues to decline.
Hengan (1044.HK): Diapers market share slightly declines.

Conclusion

The report highlights a mixed performance in the consumer staples sector in China, with some categories showing improvement and others experiencing declines. While the weighted average sales growth is positive, the two-year compounded growth is slower, indicating a slowdown in long-term trends. MNCs have seen modest share gains, particularly in shampoo and baby food, while domestic players have shown resilience in certain segments. The data underscores the importance of seasonal effects, channel shifts, and price dynamics in shaping market outcomes.