20230608-招银国际-China_Economy__Weak_exports_cast_a_shadow_on_growth_7页_906kb

CMBI Global Markets | Equity Research | Economic Perspectives - Summary

Overview

• Date: 8 June 2023
• Report Focus: Analysis of China's export and import performance in May 2023, with forward-looking economic outlook and policy implications.

Key Findings

1. Export Performance:

   • May 2023: Export growth declined to -7.5% YoY (deterioration across key trading partners). Exports to the US fell by -18.2% YoY, while exports to the EU, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN also dropped sharply.
   • Product-wise: Exports of traditional products (textiles, furniture, steel) fell significantly, but auto exports (particularly motor vehicles) remained strong.
   • 2023 Projection: Expected to drop 1% YoY due to base effects, following growth of 7% in 2022.

2. Import Performance:

   • May 2023: Import growth improved moderately to -4.5% YoY. Key increases were seen in grain, soybean, and raw materials (e.g., iron ore, copper ore).
   • 2023 Projection: Expected to decrease 2.5% YoY due to sluggish domestic demand, despite base effects.

3. Impact on Economic Recovery:

   • Weak exports intensified the shadow on economic recovery, particularly given the ongoing issues in the housing and consumption sectors.
   • Policymakers may implement further credit easing, targeting an LPR cut in July and property policy relaxations.

Supporting Data

• Trading Partners: Declines were broad-based, with sharp drops in exports to key regions and commodities.
• Product Analysis: Mixed trends, with auto exports strong despite overall declines in traditional goods.
• Policy Actions: Ongoing government moves to support demand and ease credit conditions.

Forward Outlook

• Credit Easing: Anticipated further liquidity easing to counter economic headwinds.
• Import/Export Balance: Trade deficit widened due to declining export growth and improving (but not robust) import volumes.
• Industrial Demand: The effect on investment and discretionary consumption remains muted.

Disclaimer (Partial Summary)

• The report carries standard disclosures on analyst certification, potential conflicts of interest, and risks associated with investments. Full details must be referenced.