2014-12-31-莱坊-UK_Market_Outlook_August_2015_2页_528kb

Summary of UK Market Outlook August 2015

Key Findings

• UK economy is entering a period of excess, with property capital growth rising by 0.7% month-on-month, driven by commercial property.
• Interest rates are expected to increase gradually, as the Bank of England aims to curb inflation and provide a safety net.
• Commercial property is strong enough to handle base rate hikes, supported by steady indicators like capital and rental growth.
• Retail remains a lagging sector, potentially vulnerable to higher rates due to reduced consumer spending.
• The market's indifference to rate increases reflects confidence tempered by concerns such as EU referendum outcomes and Chinese economic slowdown.

Economic Context

• Gradual rate rise strategy by the MPC to avoid abrupt impacts, with options to cut rates if needed.
• Data shows sustained growth over months, but short-term effects could burden unprepared households and businesses.