2025-04-17-莱坊-UK_Residential_Market_Update_Q2_2025_2页_451kb

The UK residential housing market is experiencing increased downward pressure since the Budget in October due to rising mortgage costs and economic uncertainties. Key points include:

• Annual house price growth slowed from 4.7% nationwide, with a monthly decline of 0.2% reported by Halifax following the Budget. Weak economic indicators, such as declining consumer sentiment and retail figures, contribute to subdued market confidence.
• Transaction volumes fell nearly 8% between October and November, and mortgage approvals dropped 3.5%. Although activity typically rises ahead of Christmas, higher borrowing costs, including a rise in the SONIA five-year swap rate from 3.4% to 4.3%, are amplifying affordability issues.
• In London, prime central and outer markets showed relative stability, with sales slightly up in outer London but hesitancy from buyers and landlords due to uncertainty. Prime country houses declined more, with the index falling by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2024.
• Economic factors, such as inflationary concerns from the US bond sell-off under President Trump's second term, are exacerbating the challenging rate environment, leading to reduced demand and potential price corrections.
• Experts advise caution, noting that while immediate market declines are possible, waiting for government changes may not yield better outcomes.