20170206-招商证券_香港_-CMS_HK__Research_Highlights_14页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Document Content

Core Content

The document includes multiple research highlights and summaries of market activities, focusing on stock analysis, macroeconomic trends, and industry outlooks.

JNBY (3306 HK)

Key Information

Stock Price: HK$6.72
Rating: BUY
Target Price (TP): HK$7.77
Dividend Yield: 7%
Market Position: China's largest designer brand fashion house with a 10% market share
Multi-Brand Operations: Strong design capabilities and omni-channel platform
Earnings Growth: FY16-19E recurring earnings CAGR of 20%
Revenue Growth: FY16-19E revenue CAGR of 18%
Profit Margin: Improved from 63% in FY16 to 64% in FY19E
EPS Forecast: FY17E EPS is 11% above consensus
Valuation: Based on FY17E 11x P/E, which is 10% premium over peer group average (10x)
Catalysts: 1H17 interim results, better-than-expected SSSG and trade fair results, and potential brand acquisitions

Maple Leaf (1317 HK)

Key Information

Stock Price: HK$4.80
Rating: BUY
Target Price (TP): HK$6.79
Acquisition: 52.4% stake in Hainan National Science Park Experimental School
Valuation: P/E of 15x, P/B of 1.9x, which is a discount compared to peer group average of 34x P/E and 6x P/B
Dilution Impact: New shares will dilute by 1.3%, but the school's earnings contribution will offset this
School Details: K-12 boarding school in Haikou, Hainan Province with over 3,200 students and 54,057 square meters of site area
Positive View: Acquisition is considered reasonable and supports strategic growth into Hainan

Global Macro Weekly Digest (Issue 70)

Key Information

RMB Depreciation and Capital Controls: Tightened cross-border capital controls and weakened US dollar helped prevent China's foreign reserves from falling below USD 3 trillion in January
RMB Exchange Rate: Appreciated against USD in January, with USD/CNY dropping from 6.945 to 6.884
Foreign Reserves: Reached USD 3.011 trillion in December 2016, the lowest since March 2011
Dollar Index: Dropped by 3.5% in January from 103.2 to 99.6 due to US policy uncertainties
Monetary Policy: PBOC raised interest rates on MLF and SLF, signaling tighter monetary stance
Expectations: The RMB is expected to stabilize in the short term, but medium to long-term depreciation pressure remains

A-share Research Highlights

Key Information

CPI and PPI Growth: CPI estimated at +2.4% YoY, PPI at +6.2% YoY
Credit Supply: Estimated at RMB2.7tn, with M2 growth at 11.0%
Export and Import Growth: Expected at +3.3% YoY and +15.4% YoY, respectively
Trade Surplus: Estimated at USD 45bn
Home Appliance Sector: Valuation premium and potential for higher mid-range valuations
Air Conditioning Industry: Expected to see double-digit growth in domestic sales due to inventory and base effects
Key Companies: Gree, Midea Group, Sanhua, and Hisense Kelon are highlighted for their potential in the sector

What to Watch

Economic Data

FX Reserves: Release on February 7th, expected to show stabilization
Caixin Services PMI: Expected to be released in February
Industrial Orders: Germany and Euro zone data points to be monitored
Consumer Credit and Job Market Data: US data points for February 7th and 8th

Company Events

Roma Group Ltd.: RES/DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED31/12/16)
Hypebeast Ltd.: RES/INT DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED31/12/16)

Research Coverage List (As of February 6, 2017)

Sector	Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Feb. 3)	12-Month TP	% Upside	EPS 2016	EPS 2017E	EPS 2018E	P/E 2016	P/E 2017E	P/E 2018E
Auto & Auto Parts	Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	HK$11.08	HK$13.0	17	0.69	0.72	0.89	12.9	12.4	9.1
Auto & Auto Parts	China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	HK$2.78	HK$3.5	26	0.29	0.39	0.46	7.7	5.8	6.0
Auto & Auto Parts	Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$9.75	HK$13.0	33	0.26	0.53	0.83	30.0	14.9	7.7
Auto & Auto Parts	BAIC Motor	1958 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$7.59	HK$6.7	-34	0.44	0.71	0.86	38.5	17.7	10.9
Auto & Auto Parts	Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	BUY	HK$8.08	HK$11.0	36	0.88	1.06	1.19	7.4	6.2	6.6
Auto & Auto Parts	Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$22.8	HK$26.0	14	1.09	1.22	1.42	16.7	15.1	11.0
Auto & Auto Parts	China Harmony Auto	3836 HK	BUY	HK$3.76	HK$6.2	65	0.39	0.42	0.50	7.7	7.2	0.0
Auto & Auto Parts	Minth Group	425 HK	BUY	HK$24.5	HK$33.0	35	1.14	1.50	1.87	17.2	13.2	12.6
Oil and Gas	Sinopec Oilfield Service	1033 HK	BUY	HK$1.53	HK$1.6	5	0.00	-1.14	0.06	N.A.	N.A.	21.2
Oil and Gas	SPT Energy	1251 HK	BUY	HK$0.74	HK$6.2	738	0.32	0.40	-	1.9	1.5	N.A.
Oil and Gas	Petro-king Oilfield Services	2178 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$0.6	HK$1.0	67	0.10	0.10	0.10	6.0	6.0	0.0
Oil and Gas	China Oilfield Services	2883 HK	SELL	HK$8.15	HK$6.5	-20	0.23	-2.43	0.00	28.4	N.A.	N.A.
Oil and Gas	Anton Oilfield Services	3337 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.16	HK$0.5	-57	0.08	0.13	-	11.6	7.2	N.A.
Oil and Gas	CNOOC	883 HK	BUY	HK$9.74	HK$12.1	24	0.45	0.01	0.49	17.3	786.4	18.4
Oil and Gas	Sinopec Kantons	934 HK	BUY	HK$3.77	HK$4.9	30	0.41	0.43	0.46	9.2	8.8	8.4
Property	Yuexiu Property	123 HK	BUY	HK$1.17	HK$1.36	16	0.11	0.11	0.15	10.6	10.6	7.8
Property	Times Property	1233 HK	BUY	HK$4.04	HK$4.8	19	1.03	1.13	1.25	3.9	3.6	3.2
Property	Yuzhou Property	1628 HK	BUY	HK$2.52	HK$3.3	31	0.48	0.54	0.64	5.3	4.7	3.9
Property	New World Dev	17 HK	BUY	HK$8.99	HK$12.2	36	0.77	0.75	0.81	11.7	12.0	11.1
Property	Country Garden	2007 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.4	HK$3.4	-23	0.54	0.55	0.74	8.2	8.0	5.9
Property	Agile Property	3383 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.1	HK$4.6	12	0.75	0.73	0.81	5.5	5.6	5.1
Property	China Aoyuan	3883 HK	BUY	HK$1.76	HK$2.8	59	0.35	0.41	0.54	5.0	4.3	3.3
Property	Greentown China	3900 HK	BUY	HK$6.41	HK$7.9	23	0.70	1.21	1.26	9.2	5.3	5.1
Property	China Overseas Land	688 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$22.9	HK$22.5	-2	2.86	3.02	3.28	8.0	7.6	7.0
Property	Ch Ovs G Oceans	81 HK	BUY	HK$2.71	HK$3.3	22	0.37	0.59	1.02	7.3	4.6	2.7
Property	CIFI Holdings	884 HK	BUY	HK$2.23	HK$2.6	17	0.41	0.46	0.55	5.4	4.9	3.2
Technology, Media & Telecom	China Telecom	728 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.66	HK$4.13	13	0.25	0.23	-0.08	11.7	12.9	13.6
Technology, Media & Telecom	China Unicom	762 HK	BUY	HK$9.21	HK$11.86	29	0.44	0.30	0.42	16.8	24.8	21.9
Technology, Media & Telecom	China Mobile	941 HK	BUY	HK$86.95	HK$112.0	29	5.30	5.43	5.91	13.1	12.9	14.7
Technology, Media & Telecom	Tencent	700 HK	BUY	HK$205.0	HK$230.0	12	3.44	4.67	6.03	47.7	35.4	34.0
Hardware Technology	Meitu, Inc.	1357 HK	BUY	HK$9.11	HK$10.1	11	N.A.	N.A.	-0.08	N.A.	N.A.	Alex NG
Hardware Technology	Cowell	1415 HK	BUY	HK$2.5	HK$3.73	49	0.08	0.07	0.09	4.0	4.6	27.8
Hardware Technology	AAC Technologies	2018 HK	BUY	HK$78.85	HK$72.0	-9	2.53	3.17	3.69	25.0	20.1	21.4
Hardware Technology	Coolpad	2369 HK	SELL	HK$0.82	HK$0.56	-32	-0.07	0.07	0.07	N.A.	11.7	11.7
Hardware Technology	Sunny Optical	2382 HK	BUY	HK$44.95	HK$30.0	-33	0.71	1.04	1.36	50.7	34.9	33.1
Hardware Technology	TCL Comm	2618 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$7.47	HK$4.96	-34	0.85	0.77	0.83	8.8	9.7	9.0
Hardware Technology	PAX Global	327 HK	BUY	HK$5.62	HK$8.24	47	0.56	0.59	0.71	10.0	9.5	7.9
Hardware Technology	Sky Light	3882 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.81	HK$0.95	-48	0.30	0.08	0.12	6.0	22.6	15.1
Hardware Technology	Tongda Group	698 HK	BUY	HK$2.16	HK$2.0	-7	0.13	0.17	0.21	16.6	12.7	10.3
Hardware Technology	Truly	732 HK	BUY	HK$3.12	HK$4.86	56	0.29	0.34	0.41	10.8	9.2	7.6
Hardware Technology	Lenovo Group	992 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.0	HK$4.7	-6	-0.01	0.07	0.07	N.A.	9.2	71.4
Textile & Garment	China Lilang	1234 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.85	HK$5.1	5	0.52	0.49	0.55	7.5	8.0	8.8
Textile & Garment	361 Degrees	1361 HK	BUY	HK$3.24	HK$3.49	8	0.25	0.24	0.30	10.4	10.9	10.8
Textile & Garment	Xstep International	1368 HK	BUY	HK$3.28	HK$3.88	18	0.29	0.30	0.32	9.1	8.8	10.3
Textile & Garment	ANTA Sports Products	2020 HK	BUY	HK$24.45	HK$24.5	0	0.82	0.95	1.07	23.9	20.8	22.9
Textile & Garment	Li Ning	2331 HK	BUY	HK$4.91	HK$6.47	32	-0.02	0.11	0.25	N.A.	36.0	19.6
Textile & Garment	Trinity	891 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$0.6	HK$0.83	38	0.00	0.08	0.13	N.A.	7.5	4.6

Main Points

JNBY is a leading designer brand in China with strong growth and dividend yield, and is recommended as a BUY with a target price of HK$7.77.
Maple Leaf is acquiring a school at a reasonable valuation, which supports strategic expansion into Hainan.
The RMB has stabilized against the USD in January due to tighter capital controls and a weaker dollar.
The air conditioning sector is expected to see strong growth and potentially peak profits in 2017.
The home appliance sector is under pressure but has room for higher valuations in the medium to long term.
The research coverage list highlights key companies across different sectors with their respective ratings and financial projections.

Key Risks

JNBY: Intense competition in the apparel sector and inability to keep up with fashion trends.
Maple Leaf: Possible challenges in integrating the new school and maintaining performance.
RMB: Long-term depreciation pressure against the USD despite short-term stabilization.
Air Conditioning Sector: Volatility in raw material prices affecting profitability.

展开完整摘要