20150908-招商证券_香港_-CMS_HK__Research_Highlights_14页_386kb

报告摘要

Cheetah Mobile is focusing on swift monetization while continuing product optimization.
The company has launched its own advertising platform, demonstrating readiness in traffic, technology, and sales.
It is building a diversified product mix based on tools applications, enhancing user experience through features like CM Community.
The target price (TP) has been lowered to US$40, implying a 34.8x 2016E PE, and reiterated as BUY.

2Q mobile MAU reached 494 million, nearing the full year target of 600 million.
Overseas mobile ARPU rose to RMB1.13, up 37% QoQ and 322% YoY.
Overseas mobile ARPU reached RMB1.23, up 51% QoQ and nil YoY.

2015E Non-GAAP net profit was revised to RMB200 million, reflecting better-than-expected revenue growth and marketing expenses.
2016-2017E Non-GAAP net profit was cut by 20% and 19% respectively, based on new assumptions on marketing expenses and gross margins.
The new TP of US$40 is based on 58% 2016-18E EPADS CAGR and 0.6x PEG, lower than the sector's 0.7x.

The company is developing in line with expectations, with new store openings increasing costs in 4Q.
It has 409 managed mall reserve projects in 1H 2015, expected to be future growth engines.
The new TP of HK$12.7 is based on SOTP valuation, implying a 14.2x 2015E P/E.

The managed mall channel has growth potential in 2,500 cities.
2015-2017E core net profit is expected to grow to RMB2.65, RMB3.36 & RMB4.16 billion, implying a CAGR of 25%.

The company is trading at 10.6x 2015E P/E, lower than the sector average of 22.6x.
Discount of 57% to the NAV of its own properties.

GCL Poly Energy has entered into a non-binding term sheet with Jiangsu Golden Concord Energy to dispose non-solar related assets.
The disposal includes 17 cogeneration power plants, two incineration plants, and one wind power plant, totaling 1,414.5MW installed capacity and 843.8MW attributable capacity.
The company plans to focus on solar-related business due to weaker profit margins in coal-fired power plants.

Net profits from disposed assets were HK$312 million (FY13) and HK$278 million (FY14).
Core net profit in FY14 would have been HK$354 million after stripping off goodwill loss (HK$27 million) and impairment loss (HK$49 million).
Net profit margin decreased from 2.5% (1HFY14) to 1.6% (1HFY15).
Net assets value and net debt of disposed assets amounted to HK$3,492 million and HK$4,633 million as of 30 Jun 2015.
Total consideration of the transaction is RMB3.2 billion, paid in cash.

35% will be used for special distribution to shareholders.
The remaining will be used for debt repayment and working capital.
The company aims to pay down HK$5 billion debt by the end of FY15, saving HK$1.3 billion to HK$1.4 billion annually.
Current P/E is 8.6x for FY15, lower than the 12-month average of 12.7x.

August US nonfarm payrolls fell to 173,000, the lowest in 4 months, but previous two months' data were revised upward.
Unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%, with labor force participation rate unchanged.
U6 unemployment gap increased to 5.2%, indicating part-time jobs led the decline.
Wage growth increased to 0.3% MoM, up 2.1% YoY.

Mixed signals in the jobs report offer flexibility to the Fed.
Nonfarm payrolls were below expectations, but historical revision trends may mitigate impact.
Underlying data show strength, but external risks may delay the September rate hike.
Futures market odds fell to 19% for a rate hike.

Securities industry showed bullish results in 1H15, with revenue and net profit growing to RMB330.5 billion and RMB153.2 billion.
Market development was vigorous, with the SSE Composite Index hitting an 8-year high and turnover reaching a world record.
Brokerage business faced substantial shrinkage due to falling commission rates and market volatility.
Capital-based intermediary business grew due to increased leverage.
Proprietary business became the core factor of profit change.
Investment logic of the securities industry has reversed from 1H.

Large brokers are trading at PB of 1.4x and PE of 10x.
Uncertainties in proprietary business prevent substantial turnaround in the short term.
Phased buying opportunities may appear in brokers during market rebound.

As of September 8, 2015, the research coverage includes multiple sectors and companies.
Key ratings and targets are listed for each company.
Valuation metrics such as P/E, P/B, and % Upside are provided.
Analysts are listed with their coverage.

Auto & Auto Parts: Includes Brilliance China, China ZhengTong Auto, Geely Automobile, BAIC Motor, etc.
Technology, Media & Telecom: Includes China Telecom, China Unicom, China Mobile, Kingsoft, etc.
Hardware Technology: Includes Cowell, AAC Technologies, Coolpad, Sunny Optical, etc.
Textile & Garment: Includes China Lilang, Xstep International, I.T, etc.
Retail: Includes Sinomax, Chow Tai Fook, Cosmo Lady, etc.