20260714-招银国际-Expecting_better-than-feared_2Q26_results_5页_1013kb

JD.com (JD US) Summary

Core Content and Key Information

This report provides an analysis of JD.com (JD US) financial performance and outlook for the upcoming quarters and years. It outlines the expectations for revenue, net profit, and operating profit, as well as the financial forecast and valuation. The key highlights include:

• Revenue Forecast: For 2Q26E, JD.com is expected to report total revenue of RMB341.4bn, a 4.3% YoY decline, primarily due to a high base and soft consumption sentiment. The net services revenue is expected to grow 9.6% YoY, while net product revenue is expected to decline 7.9% YoY.
• Non-GAAP Net Profit: The non-GAAP net profit for 2Q26E is expected to be RMB7.8bn, a 6% YoY increase, and 2% ahead of consensus. The FD business is expected to narrow its operating loss to RMB6.1bn, compared to RMB13.3bn in 2Q25 and RMB7.0bn in 1Q26.
• Operating Loss from New Businesses: The operating loss from the new businesses segment is expected to remain RMB10.2bn in 2Q26E, with the FD business contributing RMB6.1bn of the total and other new business initiatives seeing slightly wider losses due to increased investment.
• Financial Forecast Revision: The revenue forecast for 2026E has been trimmed by 2%, while non-GAAP net profit has been raised by 1% due to better-than-expected loss reduction in FD and stronger operating efficiency in the core JD Retail (JDR) business.
• Valuation: The DCF-based target price is US$47.5, translating into 16x/12x 2026/2027E P/E ratios. The report maintains a BUY rating.

Main Points and Views

Revenue Outlook

• 2Q26E Revenue: RMB341.4bn, a 4.3% YoY decline, due to a high base and soft consumption sentiment.
• Net Services Revenue: Expected to grow 9.6% YoY, with a deceleration in growth from 18.8% in 1Q26E to 9.0% in 2Q26E.
• Net Product Revenue: Expected to decline 7.9% YoY, attributed to the high-base effect from the national subsidy program.
• 3Q26E Recovery: Revenue growth is expected to recover to 4.9% YoY, driven by improved performance in June 2026.

JD Retail (JDR) Performance

• JDR Revenue: Expected to decline 6.4% YoY in 2Q26E.
• JDR OPM: Expected to remain stable at 4.5% YoY, supported by operating efficiency improvements.
• JDR Operating Profit: Forecasted at RMB13.1bn for 2Q26E, 1% ahead of consensus.

FD Business

• FD Operating Loss: Expected to narrow to RMB6.1bn in 2Q26E, from RMB13.3bn in 2Q25 and RMB7.0bn in 1Q26E.
• FD Loss Reduction: The FD loss is forecasted to narrow to RMB25.0bn in 2026E from RMB36.9bn in 2025E.
• FD Recovery: The report highlights the potential for a recovery in FD due to optimization of user subsidies, improved operating efficiency, and a better order mix.

Financial Forecast and Valuation

• 2026E Revenue: Revised down to RMB1,372.3bn (a 1.7% decrease from previous forecast).
• 2026E Non-GAAP Net Profit: Revised up to RMB31.2bn (a 1.2% increase from previous forecast).
• Valuation per ADS: The DCF-based valuation per ADS is US$47.5, with a 64.5% upside from the current price of US$28.88.

Key Financial Metrics

Earnings Summary (RMB mn)

EPS (Adjusted) and Consensus

P/E Ratio

Share Performance and Market Data

• Market Cap: US$43,002.3 million
• Average 3-Month Trading Volume: US$118.4 million
• 52-Week High/Low: US$36.17 / US$25.19
• Total Issued Shares: 1,489.0 million
• Shareholding Structure:
  • JP Morgan: 12.3%
  • Blackrock: 5.2%

Risks

• Consumption Recovery: May take longer than expected.
• Business Competition: May be more intensified than anticipated.

Analyst Certification and Ratings

• Analyst Certification: The primary analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal views and that compensation is not related to the report's content.
• Ratings:
  • BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
  • HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
  • SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

• The report is prepared for informational purposes only and not for individual investment advice.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage incurred from relying on the report.
• The report is subject to change and may contain different assumptions and viewpoints.