> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # JD.com (JD US) 1Q26 Preview and Financial Summary ## Core Content This report provides an analysis of JD.com's (JD US) financial performance and outlook for the first quarter of 2026, along with revised financial forecasts and valuation. The key focus areas include revenue growth, operating performance, loss reduction in the food delivery (FD) business, and the overall financial health of the company. ## Main Points ### Revenue and Growth Expectations - **1Q26E Revenue Forecast**: JD.com is expected to report total revenue of **RMB310.6bn**, a **3.2% YoY increase**, in line with the Bloomberg consensus. - **Revenue Growth Trends**: Revenue growth for FY26E is forecasted at **7.2%**, with a slight decline in subsequent years. - **Marketplace and Advertising Growth**: Both are expected to see a slight increase in YoY growth, reaching **15.4%** in 1Q26E. - **General Merchandise Revenue**: Expected to grow at **12.8% YoY** in 1Q26E. ### Operating Performance - **Core JD Retail (JDR) Growth**: The core JDR business is projected to deliver **5% YoY growth** in both revenue and operating profit (OP) for 2026E. - **Operating Profit (OP) Forecast**: For 1Q26E, JDR OP is forecasted to reach **RMB13.2bn**, above the consensus of **RMB12.5bn**. - **Operating Margin (OPM)**: JDR OPM is expected to improve slightly to **5.0%** in 1Q26E from **4.9%** in 1Q25. ### Food Delivery (FD) Business - **FD Loss Reduction**: The FD operating loss is expected to narrow to **RMB7.0bn** in 1Q26E, compared to **RMB10.5bn** in 4Q25. - **Drivers of Loss Reduction**: Improved user subsidies, operating efficiency, better order mix, and increased commission and advertising revenue. ### Financial Forecast Revisions - **Non-GAAP Net Profit Forecast**: Raised by **4%** to **RMB30.4bn** for 2026E, reflecting better-than-expected FD loss reduction. - **Gross Profit and Margins**: Gross profit is forecasted to reach **RMB225.7bn** in 2026E, with a slight increase in gross margin to **16.1%**. ### Valuation and Target Price - **DCF-Based Target Price**: **US$47.5** remains unchanged, implying a **16x/12x** multiple for 2026/2027E. - **Current Price**: **US$31.25**, with a **52% upside** to the target price. ## Key Information ### Shareholding and Stock Data - **Market Cap**: **US$46,531.3m** - **Average 3-Month Trading Volume**: **US$217.2m** - **52-Week High/Low**: **US$37.25 / US$25.40** - **Total Issued Shares**: **1,489.0m** ### Shareholding Structure - **Max Smart Limited**: **9.6%** - **BlackRock**: **4.7%** ### Share Performance - **1-Month Return**: **10.3% (Absolute)**, **3.2% (Relative)** - **3-Month Return**: **6.3% (Absolute)**, **5.8% (Relative)** - **6-Month Return**: **-5.7% (Absolute)**, **-9.6% (Relative)** ### Financial Summary Highlights - **Net Profit**: Expected to reach **RMB25.3bn** in 2026E, with **RMB36.9bn** in 2027E and **RMB43.5bn** in 2028E. - **Adjusted Net Profit**: Forecasted at **RMB30.4bn** in 2026E, **RMB41.9bn** in 2027E, and **RMB48.6bn** in 2028E. - **Operating Profit (OP)**: Expected to grow to **RMB15.6bn** in 2026E, with **RMB32.9bn** in 2027E and **RMB46.1bn** in 2028E. - **Gross Margin**: Expected to rise to **16.1%** in 2026E, with a slight increase in subsequent years. - **Non-GAAP Net Margin**: Projected to increase to **2.2%** in 2026E, **2.8%** in 2027E, and **3.1%** in 2028E. ### Profitability Metrics - **ROE**: Expected to reach **10.5%** in 2026E, increasing to **13.2%** in 2027E and **13.3%** in 2028E. - **Current Ratio**: Expected to improve to **1.4x** in 2026E, rising to **1.5x** and **1.6x** in subsequent years. ### Risk Factors - **Consumption Recovery**: May take longer than expected. - **Business Competition**: May intensify beyond current forecasts. ## Analyst Ratings - **CMBIGM Rating**: **BUY**, with a target price of **US$47.5**. - **Potential Return**: Over **15%** over the next 12 months. ## Disclaimer - The report is based on public data and assumptions. - CMBIGM does not provide tailored investment advice. - Past performance is not indicative of future results. - The report is for **intended recipients only** and should not be distributed to others without prior consent. ## Legal and Regulatory Notes - The report is distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 in the UK. - In the US, the report is only for **major institutional investors**. - In Singapore, the report is distributed by **CMBISG**, an exempt financial adviser.