20260415-招银国际-1Q26_preview_expecting_upbeat_results_driven_by_food_delivery_loss_reduction_and_core_JDR_5页_783kb

JD.com (JD US) 1Q26 Preview and Financial Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of JD.com's (JD US) financial performance and outlook for the first quarter of 2026, along with revised financial forecasts and valuation. The key focus areas include revenue growth, operating performance, loss reduction in the food delivery (FD) business, and the overall financial health of the company.

Main Points

Revenue and Growth Expectations

• 1Q26E Revenue Forecast: JD.com is expected to report total revenue of RMB310.6bn, a 3.2% YoY increase, in line with the Bloomberg consensus.
• Revenue Growth Trends: Revenue growth for FY26E is forecasted at 7.2%, with a slight decline in subsequent years.
• Marketplace and Advertising Growth: Both are expected to see a slight increase in YoY growth, reaching 15.4% in 1Q26E.
• General Merchandise Revenue: Expected to grow at 12.8% YoY in 1Q26E.

Operating Performance

• Core JD Retail (JDR) Growth: The core JDR business is projected to deliver 5% YoY growth in both revenue and operating profit (OP) for 2026E.
• Operating Profit (OP) Forecast: For 1Q26E, JDR OP is forecasted to reach RMB13.2bn, above the consensus of RMB12.5bn.
• Operating Margin (OPM): JDR OPM is expected to improve slightly to 5.0% in 1Q26E from 4.9% in 1Q25.

Food Delivery (FD) Business

• FD Loss Reduction: The FD operating loss is expected to narrow to RMB7.0bn in 1Q26E, compared to RMB10.5bn in 4Q25.
• Drivers of Loss Reduction: Improved user subsidies, operating efficiency, better order mix, and increased commission and advertising revenue.

Financial Forecast Revisions

• Non-GAAP Net Profit Forecast: Raised by 4% to RMB30.4bn for 2026E, reflecting better-than-expected FD loss reduction.
• Gross Profit and Margins: Gross profit is forecasted to reach RMB225.7bn in 2026E, with a slight increase in gross margin to 16.1%.

Valuation and Target Price

• DCF-Based Target Price: US$47.5 remains unchanged, implying a 16x/12x multiple for 2026/2027E.
• Current Price: US$31.25, with a 52% upside to the target price.

Key Information

Shareholding and Stock Data

• Market Cap: US$46,531.3m
• Average 3-Month Trading Volume: US$217.2m
• 52-Week High/Low: US$37.25 / US$25.40
• Total Issued Shares: 1,489.0m

Shareholding Structure

• Max Smart Limited: 9.6%
• BlackRock: 4.7%

Share Performance

• 1-Month Return: 10.3% (Absolute), 3.2% (Relative)
• 3-Month Return: 6.3% (Absolute), 5.8% (Relative)
• 6-Month Return: -5.7% (Absolute), -9.6% (Relative)

Financial Summary Highlights

• Net Profit: Expected to reach RMB25.3bn in 2026E, with RMB36.9bn in 2027E and RMB43.5bn in 2028E.
• Adjusted Net Profit: Forecasted at RMB30.4bn in 2026E, RMB41.9bn in 2027E, and RMB48.6bn in 2028E.
• Operating Profit (OP): Expected to grow to RMB15.6bn in 2026E, with RMB32.9bn in 2027E and RMB46.1bn in 2028E.
• Gross Margin: Expected to rise to 16.1% in 2026E, with a slight increase in subsequent years.
• Non-GAAP Net Margin: Projected to increase to 2.2% in 2026E, 2.8% in 2027E, and 3.1% in 2028E.

Profitability Metrics

• ROE: Expected to reach 10.5% in 2026E, increasing to 13.2% in 2027E and 13.3% in 2028E.
• Current Ratio: Expected to improve to 1.4x in 2026E, rising to 1.5x and 1.6x in subsequent years.

Risk Factors

• Consumption Recovery: May take longer than expected.
• Business Competition: May intensify beyond current forecasts.

Analyst Ratings

• CMBIGM Rating: BUY, with a target price of US$47.5.
• Potential Return: Over 15% over the next 12 months.

Disclaimer

• The report is based on public data and assumptions.
• CMBIGM does not provide tailored investment advice.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• The report is for intended recipients only and should not be distributed to others without prior consent.

Legal and Regulatory Notes

• The report is distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 in the UK.
• In the US, the report is only for major institutional investors.
• In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser.