2025-05-22-Jefferies-格伦维格房产公司（GLV）_初步观点交易更新_7页_107kb

Glenveagh Properties PLC Equity Research Summary

Rating: BUY
Price Target: €2.26 (+31% from current price of €1.72)
Current Market Cap: €1.0B
Total Return Expectation: 15% or more within the next 12 months

Conclusion

Glenveagh reports a strong start to 2025, maintaining its FY25 earnings per share (EPS) guidance of 19.5c. Analysts are reassured that the company remains on track to meet its targets, with no change anticipated in the consensus estimate from this report.

Key Highlights

• Housebuilding Segment: Approximately 73% of FY25 units are forward sold (over 1,100 units sold, signed, or reserved), up from 72% at the start of the year. The order book has grown to €1.23bn from €1.09bn in March.
• Partnerships & Urban Segment: Annual revenue guidance remains at €400m for both FY25 and FY26. Six partnerships sites are active, with plans to add at least one more site.
• Land Portfolio: €50m of the €100m target in land sales achieved so far in 2025. Guidance for FY26 land sales is €406-466m. New €20m buybacks announced, part of a €65m scheme with €19m remaining to be executed.
• Margin and Inflation: Housebuilding gross margin is expected to increase slightly YoY after adjusting for a 40bps benefit from prior land sales. Low to mid single-digit growth in house prices and build costs is noted, with slight margin gains.

Valuation and Risks:

• P/E-based valuation, with price target driven by 1.4x 2028 Net Tangible Assets Value (NTAV) discounted at 10%.
• Key risks include stronger/weaker macroeconomic data, helpful/less helpful government policy, better/poorer land markets, and shifts in house price inflation relative to build cost inflation. Market cap stands at €1.0B, and the stock trades at €1.72. Analysts certify personal views align with the report, and compensation is not tied to recommendations.