2025-06-12-Jefferies-乐购（TSCO）_初步观点_一年的美好开端_7页_101kb

报告摘要

Overall Rating: BUY with a 12-month price target of 440p (+14% from 385.3p, reflecting a 14.6x 2026E P/E multiple).
Key Q1 Performance:
- Group sales: +4.6% on a Like-for-Like basis (actual £16.38bn vs. consensus £16.05bn).
- UK: +5.1% (higher than consensus +4.0%), driven by 18% growth in Finest sales, with ~3.5% food inflation expected.
- RoI and Europe also positive, while Booker performance was negatively impacted by tobacco decline.
- FY guidance for EBIT (£2.7bn-£3.0bn) and free cash flow (£1.4bn-£1.8bn) unchanged post-results.
Expected Analyst Discussion:
- Assessments on weather impact on sales, competition dynamics given market assumptions, and implications for H1 and FY margins, with potential for incremental pressure from peers.
Company Focus: Tesco is a global grocery leader, and its strategy centers on margin recovery in the UK and selective international growth.
Valuation Risks: Downside factors include rising input costs, UK macroeconomic challenges, competitive escalation, and COVID-19 resurgence, noted in the report as "market remains intensely competitive." Current share price is 385.3p, up significantly from prior ratings history showing a consistent upward trend in buy recommendations.