2025-05-22-Jefferies-萨伯（SBRE）_初步观点周期性压力_6页_107kb

Sabre Insurance Group plc: Summary

Core Content

Sabre Insurance Group plc is a UK motor insurance underwriter, established in 1982. It distributes motor insurance policies through both brokers and direct brands, and differentiates itself by offering quotes across the risk spectrum with a focus on higher premium segments.

The company is currently facing cyclical pressures in the UK motor insurance market, with a -22.9% contraction in gross written premiums (GWP) for the first four months of 2025, reaching £66.1m. Specifically, motor vehicle GWP dropped by -24.6% to £58.1m, while motorcycle GWP declined by -5.7% to £3.3m and taxi GWP decreased by -7.8% to £4.7m.

Despite these pressures, Sabre's FY 2025 guidance remains unchanged, with an undiscounted net insurance margin of 18% and 22% still expected. Management anticipates market-wide premium increases later in 2025, which could act as a positive catalyst for the company's performance. In cross-cycle terms, Sabre's premiums are +8% higher than the 5-year average, with motor premiums +7% higher.

Key Financial Metrics

Solvency and Risk

• Solvency Ratio: Sabre did not disclose the latest figure, but stated that the post-dividend solvency capital ratio is well above the previous figure of 171.3% as of 31 December 2024.
• Loss Ratio: In-line with management expectations.
• Claims Inflation: Expected to remain at high single-digits for FY 2025.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: HOLD
• Price Target: 145.00p (+7%)
• Jefferies Rating Explanation:
  • HOLD: Expected total return of +15% to -10% over 12 months.
  • Buy: Expected total return of +15% or more.
  • Underperform: Expected total return of -10% or less.

Analyst Certification

Philip Kett, the analyst, certifies that all views in the report reflect his personal opinions and that no part of his compensation is directly or indirectly tied to the recommendations in the report.

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a through-the-cycle earnings model for valuation, incorporating various methodologies such as:

• Market capitalization
• Discounted cash flow (DCF)
• EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow (FCF)
• EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/CF, P/FCF
• Premium/discount to average group EV/EBITDA or P/E
• Sum of the parts, net asset value, and return on equity (ROE)

Risks

• Market Premium Downturn: Could lead to lower underwriting results.
• Claims Deterioration: May negatively impact profitability.
• Currency Risk: Exchange rate fluctuations may affect returns for non-US investors.
• Regulatory and Legal Risks: Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies it covers.
• Forward-Looking Statements: May not materialize as expected due to uncertainties and risks.

Investment Recommendation Record

• Recommendation Published: May 22, 2025, 02:20 ET
• Recommendation Distributed: May 22, 2025, 02:20 ET

Other Companies Mentioned

• Sabre Insurance Group plc (SBRE LN)

Distribution of Ratings

Important Disclosures

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the report.
• This report is not tailored to any individual investor and is not investment advice.
• No suitability analysis is performed by Jefferies.
• The report is intended for professional or institutional investors in most jurisdictions.
• Forward-looking statements are subject to change and may not materialize as expected.
• Third-party content (e.g., credit ratings) is not guaranteed in accuracy or completeness.
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Legal and Regulatory Information

• United States: Produced by Jefferies LLC, an SEC registered broker-dealer.
• Canada: Produced by Jefferies Securities Inc.
• United Kingdom: Produced by Jefferies International Limited (authorized by FCA).
• Germany: Produced by Jefferies GmbH (authorized by BaFin).
• Hong Kong: Produced by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited (licensed by SFC).
• Singapore: Produced by Jefferies Singapore Limited (regulated by MAS).
• Japan: Produced by Jefferies (Japan) Limited.
• India: Produced by Jefferies India Private Limited.
• Australia: Produced by Jefferies (Australia) Pty Ltd.
• Dubai: Produced by Jefferies International Limited, Dubai branch (licensed by DFSA).

Disclaimer

• This report is for general circulation and not investment advice.
• No fiduciary duty is assumed by Jefferies.
• No suitability analysis is performed.
• No liability is accepted for any use of the report or its contents.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• Exchange rate fluctuations may affect returns for non-US investors.
• Investors should consult their own advisors before making any investment decisions.