2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Zimbabwe_Staff_Monitored_Program_57页_1mb

Zimbabwe Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) Summary (IMF Country Report No. 13/193)

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 13/193 outlines the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Zimbabwe, initiated in 2013. It evaluates the country's economic progress since the end of hyperinflation in 2009, highlights ongoing challenges, and presents a comprehensive adjustment and structural reform program to restore fiscal and external sustainability, enhance financial sector stability, and improve public financial management (PFM).

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Stabilization: Zimbabwe has made considerable progress in stabilizing its economy post-hyperinflation. However, policy implementation has deteriorated in 2011 and early 2012, leading to fiscal stress.
• Fiscal Challenges: Despite some improvements in revenue collection, fiscal pressures persisted due to high employment costs, low capital expenditure, and accumulation of domestic arrears.
• External Position: The country remains in debt distress, with external debt at 88% of GDP in 2012, and a significant portion in arrears. The current account deficit, though reduced, remains a concern.
• Financial Sector Vulnerabilities: The banking system faces liquidity and capital issues, with high nonperforming loans (NPLs) and a lack of a lender of last resort. These vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by weak corporate governance and regulatory shortcomings.
• Structural Reforms: The SMP emphasizes structural reforms to improve PFM, increase transparency in the diamond sector, and strengthen financial regulation.
• Political and Economic Risks: Political instability ahead of 2013 elections, global economic conditions, and continued fiscal and financial sector weaknesses pose significant risks to the program's success.

Key Information

Economic Performance

• GDP growth slowed from 10.5% in 2011 to 4.5% in 2012, due to poor agricultural output, power shortages, and slow reforms.
• Inflation was well contained at around 3% in end-March 2013, driven by moderation in global food and fuel prices and US dollar appreciation.
• The program projects GDP growth to recover slightly in 2013 and stabilize at 5.5% in the medium term.

Fiscal Situation

• The primary fiscal balance moved from a deficit of 1.5% of GDP in 2012 to a small surplus of 0.2% of GDP in 2013.
• Total revenue in 2013 was estimated at $3.86 billion, while total expenditure was $3.93 billion (35.75% of GDP).
• Domestic arrears remained a problem, with a stock of unverified arrears at $217 million as of end-December 2012.
• The program aims to gradually clear domestic arrears and build a fiscal buffer and international reserves.

Financial Sector

• The banking sector remains vulnerable, with NPLs at 14% of total loans as of end-December 2012.
• Liquidity ratios are uneven, with 9 out of 22 banks below the 30% prudential requirement.
• The RBZ introduced T-bill auctions in 2012 to address liquidity issues, but only one issuance was successful.
• Minimum capital requirements for banks were increased, but compliance remains uneven.

Structural Reforms

• The SMP includes measures to strengthen PFM, including payroll and human resource management.
• Transparency in the diamond sector is a priority, with the aim of improving revenue collection and reducing corruption.
• The program also seeks to implement financial sector reforms and tighten the regulatory framework.

Program Objectives

• Restoring Fiscal Sustainability: Ensuring expenditure aligns with revenue, protecting priority social spending, and gradually clearing domestic arrears.
• Rebuilding International Reserves: Targeting $30 million in reserves by 2013.
• Strengthening Financial Sector Stability: Implementing reforms and improving regulatory oversight.
• Advancing Structural Reforms: Enhancing transparency, PFM, and tax administration.

Program Monitoring and Risks

• The program was endorsed by the cabinet and is considered a crucial step towards re-engaging with the international community.
• Risks include political instability, policy slippages, global economic downturns, fluctuations in commodity prices, and continued financial sector vulnerabilities.
• The authorities have committed to responding to exogenous shocks and are working to address these risks through fiscal discipline and structural reforms.

Conclusion

The Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Zimbabwe, approved by the IMF in 2013, is designed to address the country's fiscal and external imbalances, stabilize the financial sector, and promote structural reforms. While the program is viewed as sufficiently strong to achieve its targets, it faces significant challenges, including a challenging political environment, financial sector fragility, and global economic conditions. The successful implementation of the SMP is expected to lay the foundation for future Fund-supported programs and improve Zimbabwe's standing with creditors and donors.