2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kingdom_of_Swaziland_Staff_Monitored_Program_48页_1mb

Summary of the Kingdom of Swaziland: Staff Monitored Program—Staff Report; Staff Supplement (2011)

Core Content

The Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for the Kingdom of Swaziland was developed by the IMF in response to a severe fiscal crisis. The program aims to support the government's efforts to achieve fiscal sustainability and structural reforms, with the ultimate goal of potentially requesting a formal Fund arrangement in late 2011. The SMP is aligned with the government's Poverty Reduction Strategy and Action Program (PRSAP) and includes measures to improve public financial management (PFM), reduce the fiscal deficit, and protect priority expenditures in education and health.

Main Objectives of the SMP

• Reduce the fiscal deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2014/15.
• Stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio around 35%.
• Maintain gross international reserves at a level sufficient to provide full coverage of reserve money plus 50% of domestic currency deposits.
• Strengthen public finance management through transparency, centralization of expenditure controls, and improved budget processes.
• Protect priority spending in education and health to support progress toward the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the fight against HIV/AIDS.

Key Economic Developments and Outlook

• The Swaziland economy is experiencing a fiscal crisis due to a decline in SACU transfers, a high wage bill, and weak expenditure controls.
• The fiscal deficit for 2010/11 is expected to reach 13% of GDP, a sharp increase from 7.1% in the previous year.
• Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5% in 2011, compared to 2% in 2010, due to the fiscal adjustment.
• Inflation is expected to rise to 8% in 2011, driven by higher taxes and increased international food and fuel prices.
• The real effective exchange rate appreciated by 5.1% in 2010, contributing to weak export growth and external imbalances.
• Gross international reserves have declined, covering only 250% of reserve money and 2.5 months of imports by end-February 2011.

Fiscal Policy Measures

• The 2011/12 budget is designed to reduce the fiscal deficit to 7.5% of GDP, with a target of 7.9% under the SMP.
• Revenue measures include:
  • Fuel tax increases (from 25 to 30 cents per liter in 2011).
  • Sales tax increases on alcohol and tobacco.
  • Removal of tax exemptions, including mobile phone services.
  • Introduction of a value-added tax (VAT) by April 2012.
  • Improvement in income tax compliance.
• Expenditure cuts focus on:
  • A nominal wage bill reduction of E240 million (0.8% of GDP), targeting higher pay scales.
  • A 10% salary cut for cabinet ministers implemented in April 2011.
  • Elimination of tax exemptions and reduction of capital spending.
  • Wage and hiring freeze, and elimination of vacant positions.
• Overall, the wage bill is expected to decrease by E700 million (2.3% of GDP) in FY 2011/12.
• Priority spending in education and health is protected.

Structural Reforms

• The government has resumed its privatization program, including the privatization of Swazi Bank and an international tender for a second mobile phone license.
• The Swaziland Revenue Authority (SRA) has been established and is working to improve revenue collection.
• The SRA is implementing a taxpayer compliance strategy, including:
  • New IT equipment and a tax registry.
  • A unique taxpayer identification number.
  • A "full service" Large Taxpayer Unit.
• The Automated System for Customs Data (ASYCUDA) is being implemented to enhance customs data collection.
• A VAT is expected to be introduced in April 2012, with preparations underway, including a tender for new Integrated Tax Administration Software.

Monetary and Financial Policy

• The Central Bank of Swaziland (CBS) maintains a conventional peg to the South African Rand (SAR), with a 33.33% limit on advance payments for capital goods.
• Policy rates will follow those of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to preserve exchange rate parity.
• The CBS is focused on maintaining adequate gross official reserves to support external stability.
• While banks are well-capitalized, profitable, and liquid, non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) present some vulnerability.
• The government is strengthening regulation of NBFIs, including the passage of the securities bill in December 2010 and the creation of the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA), expected to be operational by end-April 2011.

Risks and Challenges

• The main risks to the SMP include:
  • Lack of political and social consensus on the reform agenda.
  • Limited administrative capacity.
  • Uncertainties regarding SACU revenue.
• These risks have been mitigated by:
  • Prior actions such as the SMP monitoring framework.
  • Safeguarding pro-poor spending.
  • Improved transparency in public finance management.
• Additional risks may arise from a change in SACU revenue-sharing formula, which is currently under consideration.

Conclusion

The SMP represents a critical step in Swaziland's efforts to address its fiscal and external imbalances, while promoting structural reforms and fiscal consolidation. The program includes a mix of revenue increases, expenditure cuts, and institutional reforms aimed at improving public financial management and economic stability. Continued external financing, privatization proceeds, and revenue administration improvements are essential to the success of the SMP. The program also emphasizes the protection of priority spending in education and health, aligning with the MDGs and HIV/AIDS initiatives.