2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Somalia_Second_and_Final_Review_Under_the_Staff_Monitored_Program_and_Request_for_a_New_Staff_Monitored_Program_60页_1mb

Somalia: IMF Staff-Monitored Program Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the Second and Final Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP II) and the Request for a New Staff-Monitored Program (SMP III) for Somalia, approved by the IMF Managing Director on June 20, 2018. It includes a Press Release and Staff Report, detailing the economic developments, program performance, and future policy directions.

Main Points

1. Program Completion and Approval

• The IMF completed the second and final review of the SMP II (May 2017–April 2018) and approved the SMP III (May 2018–April 2019).
• The staff commends the Somali authorities for their commitment to reform despite challenging political and security conditions.
• The new program aims to lay the foundation for a Upper Credit Tranche (UCT) arrangement, which is essential for Somalia to reach the Decision Point under the HIPC initiative.

2. Economic Developments

• Economic recovery: After the 2016–17 drought, economic activity rebounded in 2018, with GDP growth projected at 3.1%.
• Inflation: Inflation eased to under 3% in 2018 from 5.1% in 2017, driven by a strong rainy season and sustained remittances.
• Trade balance: The trade deficit remained high, but is expected to narrow due to improved agricultural exports and reduced humanitarian aid.
• External debt: Remains at 65% of GDP and is expected to stay stable due to lack of capacity to repay.

3. Fiscal Performance

• The federal government recorded a fiscal surplus in 2017 due to higher domestic revenue and budgetary grant disbursements.
• In March 2018, the fiscal position continued to improve due to lower-than-expected expenditure and higher domestic revenue.
• Overall balance remained at 0% for most periods, with a small surplus in 2018.

4. Program Implementation

• Under SMP II, all indicative targets (ITs) and all but one structural benchmark (SB) were met in December 2017.
• In March 2018, all ITs and SBs were met.
• The staff supports the completion of the second review and the approval of SMP III, given the satisfactory performance and strong commitment to reforms.

5. Key Reforms and Initiatives

• Currency reform: The authorities are working on launching a new national currency. The Central Bank of Somalia (CBS) has made progress, and the IMF supported the initiative.
• Public Financial Management (PFM): The focus is on improving PFM, revenue administration, and transparency.
• Financial sector reform: The program emphasizes broadening and deepening financial sector reforms, including AML/CFT compliance and strengthening monetary and financial institutions.
• Data reporting: Enhancing data reporting is a key objective of SMP III.

6. Risks and Challenges

• Elevated risks: The program faces significant risks, including fragile security, continued drought vulnerability, weak institutional capacity, and donor support volatility.
• Regional conflict and political consensus: These could slow reform implementation.
• Donor engagement: Continued donor support, especially for technical assistance, peace, and state-building, is crucial to mitigating these risks.

Key Information

Program Objectives

• Maintain macroeconomic stability.
• Rebuild key economic institutions.
• Strengthen governance and transparency.
• Support inclusive growth and economic resilience.

Economic Indicators

Structural Benchmarks (SBs) and Indicative Targets (ITs)

• SB#4 (Dec-17): Not met due to weak procurement and commitment control.
• SB#6 (Sep-17): Not met; the authorities are addressing this through contract renegotiations.
• ITs for Dec-17 and March-18 were met.

Summary of Program Focus

• SMP III will continue the reforms initiated under SMP I and II.
• It will focus on:
  • Improving fiscal discipline and revenue collection.
  • Finalizing currency reform.
  • Reviving the financial sector and improving AML/CFT compliance.
  • Promoting economic recovery and resilience programs.

Conclusion

The IMF supports the continuation of the Staff-Monitored Program for Somalia, recognizing the progress made and the need for further reforms. The program aims to improve macroeconomic stability, institutional capacity, and governance to meet the requirements of the IMF Upper Credit Tranche and to support SMP III implementation. Despite ongoing challenges, the Somali authorities are expected to maintain their reform agenda with continued donor support and engagement.