2025-06-12-花旗集团-拉丁美洲经济展望周_15页_175kb

Citi Research: Latin America Economics Week Ahead - June 16-20, 2025

Brazil: The Central Bank of Brazil (Copom) is expected to maintain the Selic rate unchanged at 14.75%, citing ongoing uncertainty and excess caution. Analysts project year-end 2025 inflation at 4.8%, remaining above the 3.0% target. Upcoming focus includes the June Focus Survey and the Industrial Activity Indicator (IBC-BR). Friday's national holiday may affect the schedule.

Chile: The Central Bank of Chile (BCCh) is likely to hold its reference rate steady at 5.00% this month. Forward guidance will be key in Thursday's Quarterly Monetary Policy Report, with expectations limiting additional cuts for now despite ongoing policy uncertainty.

Mexico: Economic activity remains subdued, with the Central Bank (Banxico) aiming for gradual easing by year-end (7.75%). Key highlights include Friday's National Accounts (1Q25) and elevated inflation, especially core, limiting policy space. A Citi Mexico Expectations Survey is scheduled for June 20.