20210608-瑞士信贷集团-Computex_2021_Data_center,edge_and_auto_long-term_drivers_PCs_still_a_short-term_driver_70页_4mb

Asia Technology Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the technology sector in Asia, focusing on the Computex 2021 event and its implications for data centre, edge computing, and automotive industries, as well as PC demand and semiconductor trends. The report outlines the current demand-side dynamics, key product launches, and supply chain challenges, along with insights on leading companies and market forecasts.

Main Points

1. Computex 2021 Overview

• The virtual Computex 2021 highlighted strong demand-side drivers in PC, cloud, auto, and enterprise sectors.
• Supply chain tightness remains a concern due to limited capacity, ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks, and geopolitical tensions.
• Keynote presentations and sessions emphasized advancements in AI, Edge computing, and automotive technologies.

2. Demand-Side Outlook

• Global PC demand is expected to sustain at a higher level in 2021 with potential upside in 2022.
• Chromebook and consumer PC demand have outperformed, while enterprise PC demand is gradually stabilizing.
• Cloud momentum is expected to continue in the second half of 2021 due to platform refreshes and new applications.

3. Key Product Launches

• New CPU and GPU rollouts are supporting near-term compute and gaming demand.
• Major brands like MSI and Gigabyte are launching gaming platforms, while Lenovo and Intel are focusing on performance and efficiency improvements.
• NVIDIA is emphasizing high-end GPU launches and the integration of AI in all applications.

4. Semiconductor and Foundry Trends

• The semiconductor cycle is plateauing rather than peaking, with TSMC leading in HPC and 5G technologies.
• Component tightness is affecting supply, with raw material prices spiking.
• Foundry utilization is elevated, and the industry is expecting continued high demand for advanced packaging and 3D stacking.

5. Hardware and ODM Outlook

• Lenovo is highlighted for its PC leadership, leveraging its ability to secure supply and platform refreshes.
• Quanta is noted for its cloud leadership and early 5G position with major clients.
• Wiwynn is a key player in the cloud sector, with new hyperscale customer ramp.
• Delta is expanding its data centre and EV businesses, showing strong growth in power solutions.

6. AIoT and Automotive Innovations

• The AloT Evolution and AI Empowerment Forum showcased advancements in AI, Edge computing, and 5G.
• Automotive electronics are evolving with upgrades in EV, Ethernet, 5G connectivity, and ADAS.
• Delta is targeting a 10% market share in EV sales by 2030.
• Hon Hai MIH aims to launch E-Bus reference design in 2022 and consumer cars in 2023.

Key Companies and Their Roles

PC Segment

• Lenovo: Leading in PC demand due to its strong supply chain and market position.
• HP: Expected to retain the top position in Chromebook shipments.
• Acer and Asus: Both facing challenges in securing components, leading to shipment declines.
• MSI: Strong exposure in gaming and high-end notebook markets.

Cloud and Data Centre

• TSMC: Benefiting from competitive push between Intel, AMD, and ARM licensees (Apple, NVIDIA, Broadcom, Marvell, Mediatek, Amazon).
• Wiwynn: A pure cloud name with new hyperscale customer ramp.
• Quanta: Strong cloud leadership and early 5G position with Rakuten and CHT.

Semiconductor and Foundry

• TSMC: Leading in HPC and 5G, with SolC used for 3D stacked cache.
• ASE: Improving pricing and units, supported by Apple SIP ramps.
• ASM Pacific: Benefiting from advanced packaging and 3D stacking projects.
• Micron: Leading in performance with 176-layer NAND and 1-alpha DRAM.

Automotive

• Delta: Targeting significant growth in EV and automotive electronics.
• ASE: Strong growth in auto packaging sales with a 27% CAGR.
• Infineon: Reaffirming EV growth with SiC and IGBT power solutions.
• NXP and Qualcomm: Highlighting secure edge and advanced connectivity solutions.

Market Forecasts

PC Volumes

• Global PC volumes are expected to grow by +8.4% YoY in 2021.
• Notebook shipments are projected to increase by +20% YoY in 2021, with Chromebook expected to reach 48 mn units in 2021 and 43 mn units in 2022.
• Chromebook is expected to maintain a significant share of the market, especially in education and enterprise segments.

Cloud Capex

• Total Hyperscale Capex is projected to grow to $160.16 bn in 2022, with Amazon leading at $48.57 bn.
• Cloud division sales are expected to grow by +39.9% YoY in 2021, with Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services showing strong performance.

Component Constraints

• Inventory days remain elevated, with DIO at ~33 days in Q1 2020 and decreasing to ~25 days by Q4 2020 before seasonal rebound in Q1 2021.
• Component shortages are expected to continue into 2021, with raw material prices spiking.

Conclusion

The Computex 2021 event underscores the resilience of the PC and cloud markets, driven by demand from education, enterprise, and home entertainment. While supply chain constraints remain a challenge, leading companies like Lenovo, Quanta, and Delta are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends. The semiconductor industry is also showing strong growth, with TSMC and other foundries benefiting from increased demand for HPC and advanced packaging solutions. Overall, the report maintains a positive outlook for the technology sector in Asia, with continued innovation and growth expected in the coming quarters.