20260721-招银国际-正力新能-03677.HK-NDR_takeaways_and_1H26_earnings_preview_5页_1mb

报告摘要

Zenergy (3677 HK) Summary

Core Content and Overview

Zenergy, a wholly owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank, is a key player in the lithium battery manufacturing sector. The analysis highlights its potential for strong long-term growth, supported by its capacity expansion plans and strategic flexibility in production lines. Despite short-term challenges related to gross margin (GPM) fluctuations, the company is positioned to deliver significant growth in the coming years.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Business Outlook and Growth Projections

Long-term growth: Zenergy is on track for strong long-term growth with management raising its ESS volume guidance to 5-6GWh, increasing its projected contribution to total sales from 10-15% to 15-20%.
Capacity expansion: A new factory in Changshu is expected to commence construction by late 2026, driving total annual capacity to 120GWh by the end of FY28E.
Market adaptability: Production lines are designed to be flexible, enabling seamless transition between EV and ESS battery manufacturing to adapt to market demand.
1H26E Earnings Preview:
- Sales volume: Estimated at 13GWh, reflecting a 52% YoY growth in EV battery installation.
- Revenue: Projected to surge 68% YoY to RMB5.3bn.
- Gross margin: Expected to narrow 2.2ppts YoY to 15.7%.
- Operating profit: Projected at RMB333mn (+175% YoY).
- Net profit: Projected at RMB392mn (+78% YoY).
- SG&A and R&D combined ratio: Estimated to drop 4ppts YoY to 9.9%.

2. Financial Performance and Projections

Metric	FY24A	FY25A	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E
Revenue (RMB mn)	5,130	8,101	12,585	20,775	27,716
YoY growth (%)	23.3	57.9	55.3	65.1	33.4
Gross margin (%)	14.6	18.4	16.3	16.4	16.5
Operating profit (RMB mn)	(90.9)	377.2	1,002.3	1,912.7	2,710.3
Net profit (RMB mn)	91.0	808.6	1,092.7	1,859.0	2,533.2
YoY growth (%)	na	788.4	35.1	70.1	36.3
EPS (Reported) (RMB)	0.04	0.33	0.43	0.73	0.99
P/S (x)	2.4	1.5	1.0	0.6	0.5
P/E (x)	124.4	15.0	11.5	6.7	5.0
ROE (%)	1.7	11.6	12.6	18.3	20.4

3. Earnings Revision and Performance

Metric	New Estimate (RMB mn)	Old Estimate (RMB mn)	Diff (%)
Revenue	12,585	16,058	-21.6%
Gross profit	2,056	2,721	-24.4%
Operating profit	1,002	1,390	-27.9%
Net profit	1,093	1,455	-24.9%
Gross margin	16.3%	16.9%	-0.6 ppts
Operating margin	8.0%	8.7%	-0.7 ppts
Net margin	8.7%	9.1%	-0.4 ppts

4. Valuation and Key Risks

Target Price: Trimmed from HK$18.00 to HK$13.00, based on a revised FY27E P/E of 15x.
Key risks:
- Lower sales volume from major clients.
- Slower client expansion.
- Lower margins than expected.
Market sentiment: Recent weak sentiment on lithium battery makers has impacted the valuation.

5. Shareholding and Performance

Shareholding structure:
- Ms. Cao Fang and concert parties: 45.4%
- Others: 54.6%
Share performance:
- 1-mth: -12.4%
- 3-mth: -31.0%
- 6-mth: -37.1%

6. Financial Highlights

Net profit growth:
- FY24A: 91.0
- FY25A: 809
- FY26E: 1,093
- FY27E: 1,859
- FY28E: 2,533
Gross margin:
- FY24A: 14.6%
- FY25A: 18.4%
- FY26E: 16.3%
- FY27E: 16.4%
- FY28E: 16.5%
Operating margin:
- FY24A: -1.8%
- FY25A: 4.7%
- FY26E: 8.0%
- FY27E: 9.2%
- FY28E: 9.8%

7. CMBIGM Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM.
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Analyst Certification and Disclaimers

The research analyst certifies that all views reflect his/her personal views and that no part of compensation is directly or indirectly related to the report.
The analyst confirms no trading or conflict of interest in the stock covered in this report within 30 days prior to the report's issue or within 3 days after.
CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice and the report is for informational purposes only.

Legal and Distribution Information

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- Fax: (852) 3900 0800.
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