20260331-招银国际-正力新能-03677.HK-Brighter_sales_outlook_after_strong_2H25_earnings_5页_1mb

Zenergy (3677 HK) Summary

Core Content

Zenergy, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with ticker 3677 HK, has shown strong performance in its second half of 2025 (2H25) earnings, surpassing expectations in gross profit margin (GPM) and operating expenses (opex). This performance highlights the company's operational efficiency, improved client mix, and reduced legacy burden, as previously noted in reports. The analysis maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK$18.00, reflecting a 113.8% upside from the current price of HK$8.42.

Main Points

• Strong 2H25 Earnings Performance

  • Revenue surged by 50% YoY to RMB4.9bn, slightly $2% lower than forecast.
  • GPM reached 18.7%, 0.6ppts higher than forecast.
  • SG&A and R&D combined ratio was 9.4%, lower than the forecast of 12.9%.
  • Profit before tax was RMB396mn, 5% higher than forecast, despite an unexpected impairment loss of RMB236mn on PP&E.

• Sales Outlook

  • Management guidance for FY26E sales volume increased to $30+\mathrm{GWh} from 30GWh in August 2025.
  • New orders are expected to be better than anticipated, with 32 new models secured in FY25.
  • Energy storage is expected to account for 10–15% of total sales this year.
  • Sales volume forecasts are revised up to 33GWh for FY26E and 50GWh for FY27E.

• Operating Cost Control

  • Zenergy is expected to maintain strong opex control, offsetting potential GPM pressure from rising raw material costs, increased competition in the NEV market, and geopolitical tensions.
  • GPM is projected to narrow by 1.5ppts YoY to 16.9% in FY26E.
  • SG&A and R&D combined ratio is expected to drop by 2.7ppts YoY to 8.5%.

• Earnings and Valuation Revisions

  • Net profit estimates for FY26E and FY27E are revised up by 7% and 10%, respectively, to RMB1.46bn and RMB2.07bn.
  • The P/E ratio for FY27E is revised to 9.4x, from the prior 22x, to reflect GPM uncertainties.

• Key Risks

  • Potential lower NEV sales volume from major clients.
  • Slower expansion into new models.
  • Lower margins than expected.
  • Sector de-rating.

Financial Highlights

Key Financial Metrics

Revenue Growth

• 1H24: 1,845 RMB mn
• 2H24: 3,286 RMB mn
• 1H25: 3,172 RMB mn
• 2H25: 4,929 RMB mn
• YoY growth: 50.0%
• HoH growth: 55.4%

Gross Profit

• 1H24: 183 RMB mn
• 2H24: 565 RMB mn
• 1H25: 569 RMB mn
• 2H25: 923 RMB mn
• YoY growth: 63.2%
• HoH growth: 62.3%

Operating Profit

• 1H24: (206) RMB mn
• 2H24: 116 RMB mn
• 1H25: 121 RMB mn
• 2H25: 256 RMB mn
• YoY growth: 121.2%
• HoH growth: 110.6%

Net Profit

• 1H24: (130) RMB mn
• 2H24: 221 RMB mn
• 1H25: 220 RMB mn
• 2H25: 588 RMB mn
• YoY growth: 166.1%
• HoH growth: 166.8%

Gross Margin

• 1H24: 9.9%
• 2H24: 17.2%
• 1H25: 17.9%
• 2H25: 18.7%
• YoY change: +1.5 ppts
• HoH change: +0.8 ppts

Operating Margin

• 1H24: -11.2%
• 2H24: 3.5%
• 1H25: 3.8%
• 2H25: 5.2%
• YoY change: +1.7 ppts
• HoH change: +1.4 ppts

Net Margin

• 1H24: -7.0%
• 2H24: 6.7%
• 1H25: 6.9%
• 2H25: 11.9%
• YoY change: +5.2 ppts
• HoH change: +5.0 ppts

Analysts and Contact Information

• Ji SHI, CFA: (852) 3761 8728 | shiji@cmbi.com.hk
• Wenjing DOU, CFA: (852) 6939 4751 | douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk
• Austin Liang: (852) 3900 0856 | austinliang@cmbi.com.hk

Stock Data

Shareholding Structure

Share Performance (12-mth)

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and that there is no direct or indirect compensation tied to the report's content. The analyst also confirms no trading activity in the stock within 30 days prior to the report and no intention to trade within 3 business days after. No direct financial interest in the listed companies is disclosed.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10%.
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10%.
• NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIGM.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the market.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the market.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the market.

Important Disclosures

• The report is not tailored to individual investors.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• The value of investments may fluctuate and is not guaranteed.
• No liability is assumed for reliance on the report.
• Reproduction or distribution is prohibited without written consent.
• CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• United Kingdom: Report is provided only to persons under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
• United States: Report is for major US institutional investors only; not for general distribution.
• Singapore: Distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser; legal responsibility is accepted only to the extent required by law.