> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** ```markdown # Zenergy (3677 HK) Summary ## Core Content Overview Zenergy, a company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reported mixed results for the first half of 2026 (1H26). Despite exceeding revenue and SG&A expense forecasts, the gross margin (GPM) underperformed due to raw material price increases. The report maintains a **BUY** rating but adjusts the target price from HK\$13.00 to HK\$11.50, based on a revised 15x P/E ratio for FY27E. The key factors influencing the outlook are expected **margin recovery**, **increased capacity utilization**, and **improved cost pass-through**. ## Main Points - **1H26 Performance:** - **Revenue:** RMB5.4bn, a 71% YoY increase, surpassing the forecast by 2%. - **GPM:** 12.5%, a 5.4ppts YoY decline, below the forecast by 3.2ppts. - **SG&A & R&D expenses:** Combined ratio declined 5.6ppts YoY to 8.4%, better than the forecast by 1.5ppts. - **Net Profit:** RMB372mn, a 5% lower than the forecast, with a net margin of 6.8%. - **2H26 and FY27E Outlook:** - **Sales Volume:** Expected to reach 32GWh for FY26E and 58GWh for FY27E. - **GPM Recovery:** Anticipated to increase by 1.8ppts HoH to 14.3% in 2H26E. - **Net Profit:** Estimated to rise 44% HoH to RMB536mn in 2H26E and 83% YoY to RMB1.66bn in FY27E. - **Capacity Expansion:** Effective annual capacity is expected to double to about 70GWh by FY27E. - **Key Risks:** - Lower sales volume from major clients. - Slower client expansion. - Lower margins than expected. ## Financial Highlights ### Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) | Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |-------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 5,130 | 8,101 | 12,709 | 20,405 | 27,164 | | YoY growth (%) | 23.3 | 57.9 | 56.9 | 60.6 | 33.1 | | Gross margin (%) | 14.6 | 18.4 | 13.5 | 14.6 | 15.2 | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 91.0 | 808.6 | 908.0 | 1,660.1 | 2,392.5 | ### Profitability Metrics | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |-------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | Gross margin (%) | 5.0 | 14.6 | 18.4 | 13.5 | 14.6 | 15.2 | | Operating margin (%) | -12.2% | -1.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | | Net margin (%) | -7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | | ROE (%) | -16.3% | 1.7% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 16.8% | 20.0% | ### Valuation Metrics | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |-------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | P/E (x) | ns | 112.3 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 4.7 | | P/B (x) | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | | P/CFPS (x) | 29.7 | ns | 7.6 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.9 | ## Key Financial Ratios - **Net Debt to Equity:** 0.1x in 2026E, expected to drop to -0.0x in 2027E and -0.2x in 2028E. - **Current Ratio:** 0.9x in 2026E, expected to remain stable at 0.9x in 2027E and increase to 1.0x in 2028E. - **Receivable Turnover Days:** 80.0 in 2026E, rising to 85.0 in 2027E and remaining at 85.0 in 2028E. - **Inventory Turnover Days:** 70.0 in 2026E, expected to remain around 68.0–67.0 in 2027E and 2028E. - **Payable Turnover Days:** 270.0 in 2026E, expected to remain stable at 265.0 in 2027E and 2028E. ## Analyst Information - **Analysts:** - Ji SHI, CFA - Wenjing DOU, CFA - Austin Liang ## Stock Data | Metric | Value (HK$) | |--------------------------|------------| | Market Cap | 13,168.0 | | Avg 3 mths t/o | 12.8 | | 52w High/Low | 12.30/5.11 | | Total Issued Shares (mn) | 2554.4 | ## Shareholding Structure | Shareholder | Percentage | |--------------------------|------------| | Ms. Cao Fang and concert parties | 45.4% | | Others | 54.6% | ## Share Performance | Period | Absolute (%) | Relative (%) | |----------------|--------------|--------------| | 1-mth | -8.6 | -8.2 | | 3-mth | -29.4 | -29.3 | | 6-mth | -44.0 | -39.2 | ## CMBIGM Ratings - **BUY:** Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months. - **HOLD:** Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months. - **SELL:** Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months. - **OUTPERFORM:** Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark. - **MARKET-PERFORM:** Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark. - **UNDERPERFORM:** Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark. ## Important Disclosures - The report is for informational purposes only and not individually tailored. - Past performance is not indicative of future results. - CMBIGM does not assume any responsibility for reliance on the report. - The report may be subject to legal restrictions in different regions. ```