> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # SANY International (631 HK) Summary ## Core Content SANY International (631 HK) has recently hosted a New Disclosure Report (NDR) in Hong Kong, where key investor questions centered on the growth outlook of large mining trucks and the potential handling of the solar business. The report outlines the company's financial performance, future projections, and strategic initiatives, highlighting the structural growth opportunities in its core business segments. ## Key Highlights - **Mining Trucks**: - The overseas backlog increased to **RMB4.5bn** in mid-April 2026 from **RMB3.6bn** in March. - Large mining trucks are expected to drive **visible margin expansion** due to a solid backlog and higher average selling price (ASP). - The gross margin for large mining trucks overseas is **35–40%**, significantly higher than wide-body trucks (China: 20%, overseas: 30%). - SANYI aims to achieve **10% global market share in 2028E** (vs. 4–5% in 2025). - The **aftermarket revenue** is expected to be highly visible, accounting for **~75%** of total revenue over the useful life of mining trucks. - **Solar Business**: - Running at an **annual loss of ~RMB300mn**, including **RMB200mn in depreciation** (non-cash). - Management has not yet decided on the future direction, which could be disposal or asset impairment. - **Earnings Forecast**: - Earnings for 2026E, 2027E, and 2028E were revised by **-3%**, **+1%**, and **+3%** respectively. - The 1Q26 results are expected to be **under pressure** due to weak new business segments. - The company reiterates a **BUY** rating with a new target price of **HK$18.9** (previously HK$19.5), based on an unchanged **20x 2026E P/E** ratio, equivalent to the peak level since 2017. ## Key Business Segments and Performance | Segment | 2025A Revenue (RMB mn) | 2026E Revenue (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | |--------|-------------------------|-------------------------|----------------| | Road header | 1,513 | 1,415 | -6.5% | | Combined coal mining units (CCMU) | 1,492 | 1,328 | -11.0% | | Small-size logistics machinery | 4,786 | 5,622 | 17.5% | | Large-size port machinery | 2,865 | 4,154 | 45.0% | | Mining trucks | 4,209 | 6,995 | 66.2% | | Telescopic forklifts | 1,065 | 1,864 | 75.0% | | Lithium battery | 2,670 | 4,005 | 50.0% | | Oil and gas equipment | 3,650 | 3,161 | -15.0% | | Solar power | 3,189 | 2,311 | -27.8% | | Hydrogen | 417 | 158 | -65.8% | ## Financial Summary (2023A–2028E) | Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 20,278 | 21,910 | 24,334 | 31,859 | 37,720 | 44,415 | | YoY Revenue Growth (%) | 30.5% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 30.9% | 18.4% | 17.7% | | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | 1,929 | 1,850 | 1,851 | 2,728 | 3,715 | 4,550 | | YoY Adjusted Net Profit Growth (%) | 15.9% | -4.1% | 0.1% | 47.4% | 36.2% | 22.5% | | EPS (RMB) | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.84 | 1.14 | 1.40 | 1.40 | | Consensus EPS (RMB) | na | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 | 1.10 | 1.47 | | P/E (x) | 28.4 | 17.7 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | | P/B (x) | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | | Yield (%) | 2.8 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 7.2 | | ROE (%) | 9.3 | 14.0 | 19.4 | 23.2 | 24.7 | 24.7 | | Net gearing (%) | 17.4 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 1.7 | -3.9 | -3.9 | ## Strategic Initiatives - **Telescopic Forklifts**: - Revenue dropped **10% YoY** in 2025 due to increased US tariffs on India. - Expected to see **substantial growth (>100% YoY)** in 2026E due to production shift to Indonesia. - Turkey production base under construction, expected to commence in 2028E. - **Capital Expenditure (Capex)**: - Annual capex is expected to be **~RMB1bn** over the coming years. ## Risks - Further weakness in **coal mining activities in China**. - Higher-than-expected **operating loss** in emerging business segments. - **Cost inflation** due to elevated commodity prices. ## Market Performance - **Market Cap**: HK$36,203.1 million. - **Avg 3 Mths Turnover**: HK$175.5 million. - **52-Week High/Low**: HK$15.97 / HK$5.46. - **Total Issued Shares**: 3,232.4 million. ## Shareholding Structure | Holder | % Ownership | |--------|-------------| | Sany Heavy Equipment | 64.9% | | Free float | 33.9% | ## Conclusion SANY International is positioned for structural growth, especially in the large mining trucks segment, which is expected to drive significant earnings improvements. Despite challenges in the solar business and potential short-term pressures from weak new business segments, the company's long-term prospects remain positive. The updated target price reflects the improved earnings visibility and the company's strategic focus on high-margin segments.