20250627-南华期货-铅风险管理报告_6页_1mb

Lead Market Analysis Summary

Date: June 27, 2025
Prepared by: Nan Hu 华南 Aluminum Research Team
Analysts: Xiao Yufei and Lin Jiawei
Key Findings:

• Latest lead price is 17,125 yuan/ton, with a forecast range of 16,300–17,500 yuan/ton and a daily volatility of 8.57%, at 15.5th percentile of historical data.
• Inventory management: Position-dependent recommendations include short-selling futures if inventory is high and prices are expected to fall, or long-buying if inventory is low and prices are expected to rise.
• Core market contradiction: Supply is tight due to limited concentrate supply and low smelter profits, combined with weak demand from the battery season.
• Factors influencing price:
  • Pro: Lead concentrate supply is constrained, and low smelter profits encourage reluctance to sell.
  • Contra: Electric vehicle season is typically weak, and macroeconomic uncertainties persist.
• Recent news: A southwest lead smelter is under maintenance but expects normal production by July, with no major change in output.
• Market data summary: Inventory levels are consistently high; smelter profits and regeneration states indicate volatility: refining lead has modest profit, while regeneration is loss-making; battery demand fluctuates by region and type, but correlations with lead prices show inconsistent patterns over seasonal cycles.

The report suggests a short-term neutral to bearish outlook, with prices likely to remain range-bound due to supply-demand imbalances.