2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Review_of_the_Fund39s_Income_Position_for_FY_2014_and_FY_2015_13页_622kb

IMF Policy Paper: The Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework

Executive Summary

This document updates the medium-term income and expenditure outlook for the IMF, based on the latest data and policy changes as of April 2014. The key points are:

• Lending Income: Increased compared to the April 2013 estimate due to new arrangements approved since then, including five Extended Fund Facilities (EFF) and one Stand-By Arrangement, totaling about SDR 7 billion in access.
• Non-Lending Income: Lower than previous estimates, mainly due to reduced investment income from the Fixed-Income Subaccount, which is projected to experience a modest loss in FY 2015 due to rising global interest rates.
• Expenditure Path: The net administrative budget is assumed to remain constant in real terms at the FY 2014 level, leading to a nominal medium-term path that is somewhat higher than in April 2013.
• Precautionary Balances: Projected to reach the current target of SDR 20 billion by FY 2018. The baseline projection assumes a 100 basis point margin on the rate of charge and current surcharge thresholds.
• Steady State: The illustrative steady state is assumed to be reached in FY 2024, with Fund credit and commitments declining to SDR 10 billion each. In this scenario, investment income and interest-free resources are expected to cover the bulk of expenses.

Key Components

A. Medium-Term Income

• Lending Income: Reflects the high level of credit outstanding and includes new arrangements approved since April 2013.

  • New arrangements (five EFFs and one Stand-By Arrangement) have increased lending income.
  • A Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement was renewed, contributing to a marginal increase in commitment fees in FY 2016.
  • Surcharges are projected to rise slightly over the medium term due to new commitments.

• Non-Lending Income:

  • Fixed-Income Subaccount: Projected to make a modest loss in FY 2015 due to rising global interest rates. Returns are expected to gradually improve, with a 100 basis point premium over the SDR interest rate by FY 2019.
  • Endowment Subaccount: Funding began in March 2014, and the subaccount is expected to be fully operational by FY 2018 with 3% payouts starting in that year.
  • Interest-Free Resources: Reflect the implicit returns from resources not subject to interest, such as SCA-1 and unremunerated reserve tranches.
  • Reimbursements: Slightly lower than earlier estimates, reflecting revised cost assumptions for the SDR Department, PRG Trust, MDRI-I Trust, and PCDR Trust.

B. Medium-Term Expenditures

• Administrative Expenses: The net administrative budget is assumed to remain constant in real terms at about $1.03 billion in FY 2015-2017.
• Capital Expenditures: Temporarily elevated due to HQ1 renovation, but the increase is expected to be moderate as major building renovations are depreciated over their useful life.
• Uncertainty: The projections are sensitive to factors such as global interest rates, U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate, and changes in surcharge policies and commitment fees.

C. Long-Run Income-Expenditure Position

• Steady State Outlook: Remains broadly balanced even with low lending income. It assumes a stable level of operational expenses and a gradual shift in the investment mandate.
• Precautionary Balances: Projected to reach SDR 10 billion by FY 2024, which is the minimum floor set by the Board.
• Income Sources in Steady State: Investment income and interest-free resources are expected to cover the majority of expenses, with lending income contributing only modestly.

Key Assumptions and Sensitivity

• SDR Interest Rate: Projected to rise from 0.1% in FY 2014 to 3.5% by FY 2023.
• US$/SDR Exchange Rate: Assumed to be 1.50, with a 10% change affecting annual income by about $246 million.
• Margin for Rate of Charge: Assumed at 100 basis points, with a 50 basis point increase or decrease affecting annual income and precautionary balances.
• Investment Mandate Broadening: Expected to take effect in FY 2016, allowing investment returns to exceed the SDR interest rate by 100 basis points by FY 2019.
• Surcharges: Based on current quotas and surcharge thresholds, with potential changes affecting the income and balance paths.

Projections Overview

• The net operational income is projected to decrease over time as lending income declines and investment income stabilizes.
• The surcharges are expected to decline as credit outstanding decreases and new arrangements are repurchased.
• The precautionary balances are projected to increase gradually, reaching the target of SDR 20 billion by FY 2018 under the current assumptions.

Conclusion

The document outlines the IMF's updated medium-term financial outlook, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a balanced income-expenditure position. It highlights the sensitivity of projections to key assumptions, including global interest rates, surcharge policies, and investment strategies. The long-term steady state is expected to be financially sustainable, with investment income and interest-free resources playing a central role in covering operational expenses.