2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Consolidated_Medium_13页_622kb

IMF Policy Paper: Consolidated Medium-Term Income and Expenditure Framework

Core Content

This document provides an updated outlook for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) consolidated medium-term income and expenditure framework, covering the period from FY 2014 to FY 2024. It includes a review of the Fund's income and expenditure projections, an analysis of the impact of various factors on these projections, and an outlook for precautionary balances.

Main Points

Medium-Term Income

• Lending Income: Increased compared to April 2013 estimates due to new arrangements, including five Extended Fund Facilities (EFF) and one Stand-By Arrangement, totaling about SDR 7 billion. These arrangements have shifted the credit path upwards and increased income from margins and service charges.
• Non-Lending Income: Slightly lower than previous estimates, primarily due to reduced investment income from the Fixed-Income Subaccount, which is expected to experience modest losses in FY 2015 and gradually return to a positive income position starting in FY 2016.
• Investment Income: The Fixed-Income Subaccount is projected to see a loss of SDR 41 million in FY 2015 due to rising global interest rates. The investment mandate is expected to broaden gradually starting in FY 2016, with a premium of 100 basis points over the SDR interest rate by FY 2019.
• Gold Endowment: The gold endowment is expected to be fully operational by FY 2018, with 3% payouts beginning in that year. Investment income from the endowment is assumed to be retained in the Investment Account (IA) during the funding period.
• Interest-Free Resources: These resources provide implicit returns and are expected to increase over time. They are mainly attributed to the SCA-1, unremunerated reserve tranche positions, and GRA income not transferred to the IA.
• Reimbursements: These are slightly lower than previous estimates, reflecting the downward revision in the estimate of these costs in FY 2014.

Medium-Term Expenditures

• Net Administrative Budget: Remains constant in real terms at the FY 2014 level, leading to a nominal expenditure path that is somewhat higher than in the April 2013 projections.
• Capital Expenditures: Temporarily elevated due to ongoing HQ1 renovation. However, the increase in capital expenses is projected to be moderate as major building renovations are depreciated over their useful life.
• Expenditure Sensitivity: Expenditures are sensitive to the level of Fund credit, global interest rates, and the U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate. If crisis pressures recede, spending could be reduced below the baseline, while renewed global pressures could push spending above it.

Long-Run Income-Expenditure Position

• Steady State Outlook: The steady state is assumed to be reached in FY 2024, with Fund credit stabilizing at SDR 10 billion and precautionary balances at the floor of SDR 10 billion.
• Balanced Position: Even with low lending income, investment income and other non-lending sources are expected to cover the bulk of expenses, leading to a positive income-expenditure position.
• Surcharges: The updated projections assume current quotas and surcharge thresholds. The margin for the rate of charge is set at 100 basis points, and changes in this margin could significantly affect the accumulation of precautionary balances.

Key Information

• Precautionary Balances: Projected to reach SDR 20 billion by FY 2018, with a floor of SDR 10 billion.
• Exchange Rate Sensitivity: A 10% rise or fall in the U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate would increase or decrease annual income by US$246 million in FY 2019.
• SDR Interest Rate: Projected to rise to 3.5% by FY 2023 from 0.1% in FY 2014. A 10 basis point increase or decrease in the average SDR interest rate would affect annual income by US$44 million.
• Margin for Rate of Charge: A 50 basis point increase or decrease in the margin from FY 2015 would increase or decrease income by US$608 million and US$581 million, respectively, and affect precautionary balances by SDR 1.9 billion.
• Investment Mandate Broadening: The revised investment mandate is expected to take effect in FY 2016, leading to investment returns exceeding the SDR interest rate by 100 basis points by FY 2019.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The updated projections indicate a strong net operational income position over the medium term, driven by increased lending income from new arrangements. Non-lending income, particularly from the Fixed-Income Subaccount, is expected to be slightly lower due to the impact of rising global interest rates. The steady state outlook assumes a balanced income-expenditure position with Fund credit declining to SDR 10 billion and precautionary balances at the floor of SDR 10 billion. The projections remain sensitive to various factors, including the U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate, SDR interest rates, and the margin for the rate of charge.