2007年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Review_of_the_Fund39s_Income_Position_for_FY2007_and_FY2008_38页_358kb

Summary of the IMF's Income Position Review for FY 2007 and FY 2008

I. Introduction

This document provides the basis for the Executive Board's annual review of the IMF's income position, burden sharing mechanism, and special charges. It outlines the proposed rate of charge for FY08 under Rule I-6(4) and discusses the financial outlook for the period FY08-FY10. The review is conducted in the context of ongoing efforts to ensure the sustainability of the Fund's finances and build a consensus on a new income model.

Key points include:

• The review builds on midyear assessments and the February 2007 Budget Committee meeting.
• The margin for the rate of charge was kept unchanged at 108 basis points above the SDR interest rate.
• The burden sharing mechanism was used to distribute the financial impact of unpaid charges and arrears.
• The Special Reserve (established in 1957) is the primary account used to absorb income shortfalls, with the 1957 Decision stipulating that administrative deficits be written off first against this reserve.

II. Review of the FY 2007 Income Position

The overall net income shortfall for FY07 is projected at SDR 108 million, down from initial estimates of SDR 60 million and midyear projections of SDR 70 million.

Key Factors Affecting the Income Shortfall:

• Lower credit outstanding: Reduced by over SDR 80 million due to advance repayments from members like Indonesia, Uruguay, Serbia, and the Philippines, as well as rephased purchases from Turkey and the Dominican Republic.
• Impact of Turkey's quota increase: Reduced the amount of credit subject to surcharges, lowering surcharge income.
• Higher implicit returns on interest-free resources: Contributed SDR 36 million due to the delayed activation of the Investment Account (IA) and higher SDR interest rates.
• Lower investment income from the IA: Reduced by SDR 36 million due to the delayed activation, and an additional SDR 4 million due to a relatively flat yield curve.
• Expenditure reductions: Helped offset income shortfalls by SDR 21 million due to the increased U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate, SDR 11 million due to lower capital spending, and SDR 3 million due to a lower budget outturn.

The operating deficit for FY07 is SDR 108 million, which will be charged against the Fund's reserves. The Special Reserve is the designated account for such charges, following the 1957 Decision.

III. Disposition Decisions

FY07 Investment Account (IA) Income:

• The IA is projected to earn SDR 199 million, while the GRA is expected to have a deficit of SDR 307 million without any transfer of IA income.
• Staff proposes that all IA investment income be transferred to the GRA to meet the Fund's operational expenses, thereby reducing the GRA deficit to SDR 108 million.

Key Considerations:

• Transferring IA income to the GRA helps maintain the Fund's precautionary balances and supports future reinvestment into the IA.
• Retaining IA income would lower reserves and reduce the amount of currencies available for transfer to the IA, which is limited by the Fund's reserves.

Proposed Decisions:

• Decision No. 1: Transfer all IA investment income to the GRA.
• Decision No. 2: Waive reimbursement of SDR Department expenses for FY08.
• Decision No. 3: Reimburse MDRI-I Trust expenses.
• Decision No. 4: Leave the margin for the rate of charge unchanged at 108 basis points.
• Decision No. 5: Waive reimbursement of PRGF-ESF Trust expenses for FY08.

IV. Income Outlook (FY 2008–FY 2010)

Medium-Term Income Projections:

• The income shortfall is expected to increase steadily from SDR 108 million in FY07 to SDR 265 million in FY10.
• The average credit outstanding is projected to decrease to less than SDR 5 billion by FY10, with the major income source expected to be investment income from the IA.

Assumptions:

• The IA's investment income is projected to increase to SDR 290 million in FY10.
• The SDR interest rate is expected to rise to 4.3 percent by FY10.
• The U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate is assumed to be 1.50 for FY08–FY10.
• The rate of charge margin is proposed to remain at 108 basis points, reflecting the transitional nature of FY08 and the need to develop a new income model.

Income Sensitivity:

• The income projections are sensitive to changes in key variables such as the SDR interest rate, credit levels, and the U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate.
• A 10 basis point change in the SDR interest rate could affect income by SDR 8 million.
• A SDR 1 billion change in credit purchases/repurchases could affect income by SDR 5.5 million.
• A 1% change in the U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate could affect income by SDR 9 million.

V. Burden Sharing

Overview:

• Burden sharing is a mechanism to distribute the financial consequences of unpaid charges and arrears between debtor and creditor members.
• It helps protect the Fund's income position and supports the accumulation of precautionary balances in the SCA-1.

Key Elements:

• For SCA-1: Accumulations are made annually and are used to build precautionary balances. These are refunded once arrears are resolved.
• For Deferred Charges: Income losses from unpaid charges are shared equally between debtor and creditor members, as decided in 2000. This mechanism will continue unless amended.

FY07 Burden Sharing:

• SDR 30 million was generated in the first half of FY07 through equal contributions from debtor and creditor members.
• The Executive Board decided to suspend further contributions to the SCA-1 in the second half of FY07.

VI. Special Charges

• The burden sharing mechanism is used to handle both current surcharge income and unpaid charges.
• The SCA-1 serves as a precautionary buffer to manage potential credit defaults.
• Refunds of the SCA-1 would negatively impact the Fund's income, as seen in the case of a SDR 500 million refund, which would reduce income by SDR 21 million annually.

VII. Key Tables and Boxes

Table 1: Projected Income Shortfall—FY07

• Net income shortfall: -108 million SDR
• Key variances include: advance repayments (-50), rephased purchases (-28), Turkey's quota increase (-6), higher implicit returns (36), lower IA income (-36), and expenditure adjustments (3, 11, 21).

Box 1: Executive Board Decisions in Effect

• The margin for the rate of charge was kept at 108 basis points.
• The burden sharing mechanism was used for both SCA-1 and deferred charges.
• The PRGF-ESF Trust expenses were waived for FY08.

Box 2: The Fund's Precautionary Balances

• Composed of General Reserve, Special Reserve, and SCA-1.
• The General Reserve was established in 1958, and the Special Reserve in 1957.
• SCA-1 currently holds SDR 1.7 billion.

Box 3: Investment Account

• The IA was established in 2006 and funded with SDR 5.9 billion from the GRA.
• The IA's investment objective is to exceed the SDR interest rate while minimizing underperformance.
• The IA uses a 1–3 year benchmark index and is managed by external asset managers.

VIII. Conclusion

The FY07 income review highlights a net shortfall of SDR 108 million, driven by lower credit outstanding and reduced investment income. The Fund's finances are under pressure, with a projected increase in income shortfalls over the next three years. The burden sharing mechanism and the SCA-1 play a critical role in managing these shortfalls. The staff proposes maintaining the current rate of charge margin and transferring IA income to the GRA for FY08 to ensure continued financial stability. A sustainable financing model remains a priority, with the development of a new income framework being considered separately.