IMF国际货币组织全球-Review-Of-The-Fund-s-Income-Position-For-FY-2019-And-FY-2020_47页_1mb

IMF Policy Paper: Review of the Fund's Income Position for FY 2019 and FY 2020

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive review of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) income position for the financial years 2019 and 2020. It outlines the projected net income, key income components, and disposition decisions for FY 2019, as well as the outlook for FY 2020. The paper also discusses the pension-related (IAS 19) adjustment, the rate of charge margin, and the framework for special charges on overdue obligations.

Main Points

FY 2019 Income Position

• Net Income: Projected at SDR 0.5 billion (US$0.7 billion), slightly below the February 2019 estimate but broadly in line with the April 2018 estimate.
• Net Operational Income: Initially projected at SDR 691 million, but after the IAS 19 adjustment, it is expected to be about SDR 205 million.
• Key Income Sources:
  • Lending Income: Increased significantly, reaching SDR 1.194 billion, up from SDR 843 million in the initial April 2018 projections.
  • Investment Income: Increased to SDR 508 million, mainly due to translation gains and better performance from the Fixed-Income Subaccount (Fl) and Endowment Subaccount (EA).
• Net Pension Asset/(Liability) Adjustment: A loss of SDR 486 million is expected, which could significantly reduce the net operational income.
• Operational Expenses: Increased by about SDR 32 million due to a lower US$/SDR exchange rate compared to the April 2018 estimate.
• Precautionary Balances: Projected to reach SDR 17.7 billion at the end of FY 2019.

FY 2020 Income Outlook

• Net Income Projection: SDR 1.7 billion (US$2.4 billion), subject to considerable uncertainty.
• Sensitivity to Assumptions: The projections are sensitive to disbursement timing, new arrangements, and the performance of the Fund's investment portfolio.
• Rate of Charge Margin: The margin remains at 100 basis points, as the Executive Board decided not to adjust it at this time.

Disposition Decisions

• Fixed-Income Subaccount (Fl): Income is transferred to the General Resources Account (GRA) to cover Fund expenses (proposed Decision 3).
• Endowment Subaccount (EA): Investment income is retained in the EA, in line with the EA payout policy framework agreed in April 2018 (Box 1).
• Reserve Allocation: Net income for FY 2019 is proposed to be split equally between the Special Reserve and the General Reserve (proposed Decision 4).
• Precautionary Balances: Expected to increase by SDR 0.2 billion to SDR 17.7 billion by the end of FY 2019.

Special Charges Review

• The review of the special charges framework will now occur as part of the five-yearly review of the Fund's strategy on overdue financial obligations.
• The annual review of the Fund's income position is no longer the regular review mechanism for special charges.

Key Decisions and Recommendations

• Retention of EA Investment Income: Income from the Endowment Subaccount is to be retained and reinvested, not transferred to the GRA.
• Equal Allocation to Reserves: Net income from the GRA will be allocated equally to the Special Reserve and the General Reserve.
• No Change to Rate of Charge Margin: The margin remains at 100 basis points for FY 2019 and FY 2020.
• Reimbursements to GRA: Expenses for the SDR Department and PRG Trust are to be reimbursed, with the methodology updated to use lagged actual data.

Conclusion

The document highlights the importance of maintaining adequate precautionary balances and the need for a transparent and flexible framework for income disposition and reserve allocation. It also underscores the volatility of pension-related adjustments and the sensitivity of income projections to various factors, including market conditions and policy decisions. The review process continues to be aligned with the Fund's long-term financial strategy and governance structure.