世界银行-欧洲和中亚经济更新，2023年秋季：增长缓慢，风险上升（英）-2023.10-100页_8mb

Summary of "Sluggish Growth, Rising Risks" - Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2023

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of economic developments, policies, and growth outlooks for the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region in the fall of 2023. It highlights the continued negative impacts of the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, tighter global financial conditions, persistent inflation, and economic fragmentation. The report also outlines the macroeconomic performance and poverty outlooks for various ECA countries, emphasizing the uneven regional growth and the challenges posed by external and internal factors.

Main Views

• Weak Global Growth: Five-year global growth from 2020 to 2024 is the weakest in three decades, with the EU and China experiencing particularly weak performance.
• ECA Growth Outlook: ECA's growth is projected to remain weak in 2023 and 2024, with an average of 2.4% for 2023 and 2.6% for 2024-2025.
• Regional Divergence: Growth projections have diverged significantly within the ECA region, with some countries seeing upgrades and others remaining unchanged or being downgraded.
• Russia and Türkiye as Exceptions: Russia's growth is expected to rise slightly due to increased government spending, while Türkiye's growth is projected to improve due to stronger consumer demand and reduced policy uncertainty.
• Inflation and Financial Conditions: Inflation has eased in ECA, but disinflation has slowed. Tighter monetary policies have led to higher bond yields and credit constraints.
• Structural Challenges: Climate change, aging populations, and slow productivity growth are posing long-term risks to economic performance in ECA.
• Downside Risks: The outlook is generally on the downside, with risks including further slowdown in the euro area, lower commodity prices, and financial instability due to prolonged tight conditions.

Key Information

Economic Growth Projections

• ECA Region: Projected to grow at 2.4% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024-2025.
• Russia: Growth is expected to remain weak at 1.1% annually due to capacity constraints and sanctions.
• Türkiye: Growth is projected to increase to 4.2% in 2023 due to resilient consumption and policy normalization.
• South Caucasus and Central Asia: Growth projections have been upgraded due to increased inflows of migrants, businesses, and capital.
• Eastern Europe: Growth is gradually recovering, but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
• Central Europe and Western Balkans: Growth is expected to be weaker, influenced by the euro area slowdown and tight financial conditions.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation: Has partly receded in ECA, but core inflation remains sticky, especially in the service sector.
• Monetary Policy: Tighter policies across advanced and developing economies have led to higher yields and credit constraints.
• Interest Rates: Expected to remain high, limiting fiscal flexibility and increasing the risk of debt distress in EMDEs.

Structural and External Challenges

• Climate Change: Becoming a significant constraint on growth, with increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events.
• Global Economic Fragmentation: Affecting trade and investment flows, increasing economic vulnerabilities.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Deepening investor sentiment concerns, leading to capital outflows and currency depreciation.
• Productivity and Demographics: Slowing productivity and aging populations are undermining long-term growth potential.

Regional Classification

The ECA region is divided into the following subregions:

• Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
• Central Europe: Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, Romania
• Eastern Europe: Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine
• Russia
• South Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia
• Türkiye
• Western Balkans: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia

Key Risks

• Inflation Persistence: Due to rising labor costs and volatile commodity prices.
• Global Growth Slowdown: May lead to weaker export performance and economic contraction.
• Financial Market Volatility: Tight conditions may test the resilience of financial systems, especially in countries with weak balance sheets.
• Debt Distress: High interest rates and limited fiscal space may increase the risk of bankruptcies in EMDEs.
• Reform Delays: Persistent economic weakness and policy uncertainty could hinder structural reforms and the green transition.

Conclusion

The ECA region faces a challenging economic environment, with weak growth and rising risks. While some countries, such as Russia and Türkiye, show signs of improvement, others continue to struggle with the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, financial constraints, and inflationary pressures. The long-term outlook is clouded by structural issues, including climate change and demographic challenges, which may further limit growth potential. The report underscores the need for continued policy reforms and investments in resilience and sustainability.