2018年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_Prospects_for_Regional_Free_Trade_in_Asia_24页_1mb

Summary of "Prospects for Regional Free Trade in Asia"

Core Content

This paper discusses the development and implications of regional free trade agreements (FTAs) in Asia, with a particular focus on China's FTA strategy and its impact on regional and global trade dynamics. It highlights how Asian countries, frustrated with the slow progress of the WTO Doha Round and APEC, have increasingly turned to bilateral and regional FTAs as a means of advancing trade liberalization. While China is a major player in this trend, a China-led regional economic bloc remains distant.

Main Points

• FTA Momentum in Asia:
  By 2005, Asian countries (excluding China) had ratified 14 bilateral and regional FTAs and were negotiating seven more. China, since 2000, has completed three bilateral FTAs and initiated 17 others, making it a key driver of FTA activity in the region.

• China's FTA Strategy:
  China pursues FTAs for both economic and political reasons. Economically, they help maintain an open trading system and reduce supply risks. Politically, they serve as tools for commercial diplomacy and institutionalizing economic partnerships. China's FTAs are less comprehensive than those of the US and EU, typically excluding dispute settlement, intellectual property, and labor provisions.

• Key FTAs with China:

  • Hong Kong CEPA: The most comprehensive FTA China has signed, with significant tariff reductions and service liberalization. It provides a model for future regional integration and helps China demonstrate its commitment to trade liberalization.
  • ASEAN-China FTA: A major initiative that aims to reduce tariffs and promote trade between China and Southeast Asia. The agreement includes an Early Harvest program to accelerate liberalization, especially in agriculture. It is expected to significantly boost bilateral trade and may become the world's largest FTA.
  • New Zealand FTA: Seen as a stepping stone for China to position itself as a free trader in negotiations with larger industrial countries. It also offers China a platform to advance domestic reforms and gain market economy status recognition.

• Pan-Asian FTA Challenges:
  While there is potential for a pan-Asian FTA, it faces significant political and economic hurdles. Japan and South Korea resist removing agricultural and service barriers, and historical tensions between Japan and China complicate the process. A Northeast Asian FTA could boost China's GDP by over 2%, but broader pan-Asian cooperation remains elusive.

• Regional Integration Trends:
  Asian intraregional trade has grown rapidly, outpacing that of Europe and NAFTA. This suggests a strong foundation for greater policy coordination, though it does not yet indicate the formation of a unified politico-economic bloc.

Key Information

• FTA Activity in Asia:
  Asian countries are actively negotiating 23 bilateral and regional FTAs, many with non-Asian partners. China is particularly active, with 17 new FTA proposals and significant progress in existing ones.

• China's Economic Influence:
  China's rapid growth has made it a dominant economic force in East Asia. It is the largest recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) and has a significant trade surplus with the US and EU, but trade deficits with several Asian countries.

• FTA Impacts:
  FTAs are expected to increase trade significantly. For example, the ASEAN-China FTA could raise bilateral trade by 50%, and the New Zealand FTA is projected to increase exports by 20–39% over 20 years.

• Comparative Strategies:
  Unlike the US and EU, which emphasize "competitive liberalization" and multilateral engagement, China focuses on bilateral and regional agreements that are more pragmatic and tailored to specific interests.

• Conclusion:
  The FTA process in Asia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere does not signify the formation of major politico-economic blocs, but rather a pattern of countries pursuing trade liberalization with a variety of partners. A China-led regional bloc appears unlikely in the near term, despite China's economic weight.

Table of Key FTAs

References

• The paper draws on various studies and reports, including the Sutherland Report, ASEAN Secretariat data, and economic models, to analyze the economic and political implications of FTAs in Asia.