电通安吉斯-2018全球广告支出（英文）-2018.1-10页

报告摘要

DENTSU AEGIS NETWORK: Global Ad Spend Forecasts for 2018

Core Content Summary

This document outlines Dentsu Aegis Network's global ad spend forecasts for 2018, highlighting key trends and market transformations. It provides a comprehensive view of the advertising landscape, emphasizing the shift toward digital media and the mixed growth patterns across different regions.

Main Ad Spend Trends for 2018

Global Growth Acceleration:
Global ad spend growth is forecast to accelerate to 3.6% in 2018, up from 3.1% in 2017. The total global ad spend is expected to reach US$589.5 billion.
- The growth is driven by events such as the Winter Olympics & Paralympics, FIFA World Cup in Russia, and US Congressional elections.
Digital Dominance:
Digital ad spend is expected to grow at 12.6% in 2018, reaching US$220.3 billion, and will account for 38.3% of total ad spend, overtaking TV (35.5%) for the first time.
- Digital media spend is forecast to increase by 30% in 2018, with mobile ad spend growing by 43.6% and contributing 47% of total digital spend.
Mobile Growth:
Mobile ad spend is projected to grow by 23.8% in 2018, reaching US$121.1 billion, and will make up 62% of total digital spend.
- Mobile overtook desktop in 2017, with a 57% share of digital spend versus 43% for desktop.
Key Market Growth:
- United States: Ad spend is projected to grow by 3.2%, reaching US$216.9 billion, contributing 33.4% of the US$6.8 billion increase in new ad dollars.
- India: Ad spend is forecast to grow by 12.5% in 2018, up from 9.6% in 2017, reflecting strong economic growth.
- Germany: Ad spend is projected to grow by 2.6%, reaching €16.2 billion, with a positive outlook for 2019 at 3.0% growth.
- Japan: Ad spend is expected to grow by 1.6%, up from 1% in 2017, with a projected 2.1% growth in 2019.
Slowing Growth in Some Markets:
- China: Ad spend growth is forecast to slow to 5.4% in 2018, down from 6% in 2017, and further to 5.3% in 2019.
- United Kingdom: Ad spend growth is expected to decelerate to 2.9% in 2018, down from 3.2% in 2017, with concerns over Brexit and household spending.
- Russia: Ad spend growth is projected to increase to 10.4% in 2018, up from 7.8%, driven by TV inflation (15-20%) and political events.

Key Insights on Digital Media

Paid Search: Accounts for 40% of digital spend and is forecast to grow by 12.5% in 2018. The rise of voice search is expected to continue, supported by voice-activated devices like Amazon’s Alexa.
Online Video: The fastest-growing digital media category, projected to grow by 24.5% in 2018, driven by mobile-video consumption.
Social Media: Expected to grow by 23.5% in 2018, with increasing engagement and relevance.
Display Advertising: Growth is expected to slow, with a projected 8.7% increase in 2018, as traditional banner formats decline in favor of more interactive formats.

Market Share by Media Type

Television: Share of global ad spend is expected to decrease from 38.3% in 2016 to 35.5% in 2018.
Newspapers: Share is projected to fall from 10.4% to 8.1%.
Magazines: Share is expected to decline from 6.3% to 5.1%.
Radio: Share remains relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 6.5% to 6.1%.
Cinema and Outdoor: Shares remain largely unchanged, around 0.6% and 6.3%, respectively.
Digital: Share is set to rise from 31.8% in 2016 to 38.3% in 2018, becoming the dominant medium.

Conclusion

The 2018 ad spend forecast indicates a market in transformation, not recession. While some regions face slower growth, digital remains the only growth certainty. Businesses that focus on digital economy solutions will be best positioned to capture opportunities and manage risks. This transformation is driven by technological advancements, data-driven marketing, and consumer behavior shifts, particularly toward mobile and video.