国际可再生资源机构-可再生能源就绪性评估：博茨瓦纳（英）-2021.8-94页_6mb

RENEWABLES READINESS ASSESSMENT: BOTSWANA

Core Content

The Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA) for Botswana, conducted by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in collaboration with the Government of Botswana, provides a comprehensive evaluation of the country's readiness to integrate renewable energy into its energy system. It outlines key challenges and actionable recommendations to support the transition to a more sustainable and diversified energy mix.

Botswana is an arid to semi-arid country with a total area of 582,000 square kilometers, located in Southern Africa. It is a landlocked, developing, and upper-middle-income country with a population of 2.3 million, of which 30% reside in rural areas. As of 2020, electricity access stands at 65% (81% in urban areas, 28% in rural areas). The country's energy supply in 2017 was 2.9 Mtoe, composed primarily of oil products (35%), coal (44%), traditional biofuels and waste (19%), and imported electricity (2%). Electricity generation is heavily dependent on coal and imported petroleum products.

The country's GDP has more than tripled since 2000, while total final energy consumption (TFEC) has increased by 45%. However, Botswana faced a significant economic downturn in 2015 due to declining diamond exports, severe drought, and energy shortages. In response, the government launched the Economic Stimulus Programme (ESP) to stimulate growth, promote economic diversification, and create jobs. The recovery has been driven by the development of non-mining sectors such as trade, transport, tourism, and communications.

Main Points

1. Energy Context and Challenges

• Regional Energy Context: Botswana's energy system is characterised by unreliable power supply, limited investment, poor maintenance, and high service costs.
• Electricity Supply: The country relies heavily on coal and diesel for electricity generation, with up to 94% of its electricity demand previously met through imports. This has been decreasing due to the recovery of the Morupule B plant.
• Energy Efficiency and Climate Action: The government has set a goal to achieve 15% renewable energy in the national energy mix by 2030 and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as part of its UNFCCC commitments.
• Renewable Energy Potential: Botswana has significant potential for solar, wind, and bioenergy, but these resources remain underutilised. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) outlines a target of 15% renewable energy by 2030, with Vision 2036 aiming for 50% by March 2036.

2. Enabling Frameworks

• Policy and Regulatory Frameworks: IRENA has supported the development of policy and regulatory frameworks to enable the transition to renewable energy. The establishment of the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA) in 2017 marks a step towards regulatory reform, though it is currently underdeveloped.
• Institutional Framework: A strong institutional framework is needed to manage the transition, including clear roles and responsibilities for stakeholders such as the Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) and BERA.

3. Key Challenges and Recommendations

• Regulatory Reform: Operationalising BERA with a sustainable and independent budget, and ensuring political independence and accountability for utilities.
• Grid Code Development: Establishing a grid code that facilitates access to the grid for renewable energy sources and enables merit-order dispatch based on marginal cost.
• Tariff Reform: Revising the tariff-setting structure to include performance-based incentives and align with the needs of the energy system, including spatial and temporal profiles of consumption.
• Investment and Permitting: Conducting location-specific pre-feasibility studies and streamlining permitting processes for renewable energy projects, including environmental impact assessments and grid connection studies.
• Grid Integration: Performing a dynamic grid impact study to assess the ability of the grid to absorb variable renewable energy (VRE) and to support the development of grid reinforcement and storage on a cost-efficient basis.
• Rural Electrification: Consolidating rural electrification strategies into a single, comprehensive document and integrating them with other energy initiatives.
• Skills Development: Enhancing local skills and capacity to support the implementation of renewable energy projects and programmes.
• Private Sector Participation: Developing a regulatory framework that balances risks and rewards between the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and BPC to encourage private sector investment in renewable energy.

Key Information

• IRENA's Role: IRENA provides technical support and expertise, facilitating consultations among national stakeholders and refining its methodology for the RRA process.
• Government Commitment: The Ministry of Mineral Resources, Green Technology and Energy Security (MMGE) has been central to the RRA process, with support from the Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) and Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA).
• Strategic Initiatives: Botswana has launched several initiatives, including the Biogas Pilot Project, Off-Grid Solar Programme, and Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Programme, to expand renewable energy use.
• Goals: The government aims to achieve 15% renewable energy in the national mix by 2030 and 50% by 2036, with a focus on energy security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability.

Conclusion

The RRA highlights the need for a clear long-term vision, strong regulatory frameworks, and strategic investments to support Botswana's transition to renewable energy. By addressing institutional, regulatory, and financial barriers, and by improving grid integration and rural electrification, the country can achieve its renewable energy targets and contribute to a sustainable energy future.