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REmap 2030: Renewable Energy Prospects for Ukraine

Core Content

The REmap 2030 report, published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2015, explores the potential for increasing renewable energy use in Ukraine by 2030. It outlines the current energy situation, policy framework, and the economic and environmental benefits of transitioning to renewable energy sources. The report is part of IRENA's broader effort to help countries achieve a sustainable energy future and double the share of renewables in the global energy mix by 2030.

Main Points

• Ukraine's Renewable Energy Potential: Ukraine has significant renewable energy potential, particularly in biomass, wind, solar, and geothermal. The report suggests that with appropriate policies, Ukraine could increase its renewable energy share from 3% in 2009 to 21.8% by 2030, which is a ten-fold increase in total final renewable energy use from 87 PJ to 870 PJ.

• Reference Case vs. REmap Options: Under the Reference Case, which assumes the continuation of current policies (as outlined in the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP)), the renewable share in total final energy consumption (TFEC) would increase to 13.2% by 2030. However, using REmap Options, the share could be raised to 21.8%, leading to substantial economic and environmental benefits.

• Economic and Environmental Benefits:

  • Increasing the renewable share to 21.8% would result in USD 175 million in annual savings under a conservative estimate.
  • When including health and CO₂ emissions savings, the savings could reach USD 1.3 billion per year.
  • More aggressive estimates suggest savings of up to USD 5.5 billion per year.

• Sector Breakdown of Renewable Potential:

  • Heat accounts for 73% of the total renewable potential.
  • Electricity generation contributes 20%.
  • Transport accounts for 7%.

• Biomass as a Key Resource:

  • Nearly 80% of the total renewable potential is attributed to biomass.
  • Biomass is used for heating, power generation, and transport fuels.
  • Under REmap Options, the primary biomass demand is projected to rise to 820 PJ per year.

• Renewable Energy in the Electricity Sector:

  • The share of renewables in electricity generation is expected to increase from 11.3% under the Reference Case to 25% under REmap 2030, a four-fold increase from 2009 levels.

• Natural Gas Reduction:

  • REmap Options could help cut natural gas demand by 15% by 2030 compared to the Reference Case.
  • This would improve energy security by reducing dependence on imported gas and lower the economic burden of energy imports.

• Policy and Investment Needs:

  • To reach 21.8% renewable share, USD 5.0 billion in annual investment flows would be required by 2030, doubling the current investment plans.
  • The report highlights the need for predictable and stable policies to encourage long-term investment in renewable technologies.

• Methodology:

  • The REmap 2030 methodology involves cost-supply curves for renewable energy technologies from both government and business perspectives.
  • It includes substitution costs, which are calculated based on the cost difference between renewable and conventional technologies.
  • The report also estimates external costs and benefits, including GHG emissions reductions, air pollution improvements, and health benefits.

• Challenges and Barriers:

  • High capital costs and uncertainty in policy are major barriers to renewable energy investment.
  • The changing policy landscape and lack of long-term predictability create investment risks.
  • The report emphasizes the importance of energy efficiency improvements in conjunction with renewable energy deployment.

• Energy Efficiency and Policy Integration:

  • The report underscores the need to integrate energy efficiency measures with renewable energy expansion to achieve sustainable development and energy security goals.
  • Ukraine's National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) serves as the baseline for the analysis, and the report outlines how it can be enhanced with REmap Options.

Key Information

• IRENA's Role: IRENA conducted the REmap analysis in collaboration with Ukrainian experts and used national data and literature review to identify potential renewable energy technologies.

• Support and Funding: The report was made possible with generous support from the German government and is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). It was reviewed by Ukrainian government officials and international experts.

• Publications and Contact: The full REmap material is available at www.irena.org/remap. For feedback or further information, contact the REmap team at remap@irena.org.

Conclusion

IRENA's REmap 2030 report highlights Ukraine's potential to significantly increase renewable energy use by 2030, which could lead to substantial cost savings, improved energy security, and reduced carbon emissions. However, achieving these targets requires predictable policies, investment in renewable technologies, and integration with energy efficiency measures. The report serves as a policy guide and discussion tool to support Ukraine's transition to a more sustainable and diversified energy system.