2017年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_Ukraine_for_the_Period_FY17-21_89页_1mb

Summary of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for Ukraine (FY17-FY21)

Core Content

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ukraine, covering the period from FY17 to FY21, outlines the World Bank Group (WBG) strategy to support Ukraine's sustainable and inclusive economic recovery. The CPF is aligned with the Government's development strategy and the findings of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD). It emphasizes three main focus areas: making markets work, fiscal and financial stability, and efficiency and inclusiveness of social service delivery, all in line with the WBG's twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity.

The CPF was developed in consultation with various stakeholders, including the Government, civil society, the private sector, and other development partners. The framework aims to address long-standing structural bottlenecks and support the implementation of reforms that can enhance investor confidence, improve the business environment, and reduce poverty.

Main Points

1. Country Context and Development Agenda

• Political Context: The Euromaidan protests in 2013-2014 led to significant political changes, including the ousting of President Yanukovych and the establishment of a new pro-reform government. However, political uncertainty and the influence of vested interests continue to hinder progress.
• Economic Context: Ukraine faced a severe economic crisis in 2014-2015 due to the conflict in Donbas, decline in global commodity prices, and political instability. Real GDP contracted by 6.6% in 2014 and 9.8% in 2015, while the fiscal deficit reached 10.1% of GDP in 2014.
• Poverty Trends: Poverty increased significantly in 2015, from 3.3% to 5.8% (under $5/day), and moderate poverty rose from 15.2% to 22.2%. This was driven by falling disposable incomes, worsening labor market conditions, and the impact of the conflict.
• Development Challenges: The SCD identified three major challenges:
  • Macroeconomic instability (large fiscal and current account deficits, insolvent banking sector)
  • Weak private sector productivity
  • Ineffective service delivery
• Corruption and State Capture: Ukraine ranks near the bottom in corruption indicators. State capture has led to asset concentration, rent extraction, and the dominance of a few oligarchs, undermining reform efforts and public service delivery.

2. WBG Partnership Framework

• The CPF is built on lessons from the previous Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) and stakeholder consultations.
• Key lessons include:
  • The WBG must maintain flexibility in its approach due to ongoing uncertainty.
  • Policy and institutional reforms are critical for realizing investment benefits.
  • Complementarity between WBG lending and IFC advisory services is essential.
  • Strategic and selective analytical work is more effective than fragmented efforts.
  • Dissemination of knowledge and public debate are as important as analytical work itself.
  • Continuity in key reform areas is necessary to sustain progress.
  • Close coordination with other development partners is crucial for effectiveness.

3. Focus Areas

• Focus Area 1: Making Markets Work
  • Supports private sector development, business environment reforms, and market liberalization.
• Focus Area 2: Fiscal and Financial Stability
  • Aims to reduce the fiscal deficit, stabilize the banking sector, and improve public financial management.
• Focus Area 3: Efficiency and Inclusiveness of Social Service Delivery
  • Focuses on social protection programs, public service delivery, and citizen engagement.

4. Implementation Strategy

• Current Portfolio: The WBG has ongoing projects in key areas, including fiscal reforms, banking sector restructuring, and social protection.
• Potential New Lending Engagements: Includes support for private sector development, energy sector reforms, and public infrastructure.
• Financial Management and Procurement: Emphasizes transparent and efficient public procurement, improved financial management, and restructuring of SOEs and banks.
• Citizen Engagement: Aims to strengthen public participation and transparency in government processes.
• Partnerships and Coordination: Highlights the importance of working with IFC, MIGA, and other international partners to align efforts and maximize impact.

Key Information

• Currency Equivalence: US$1 = UAH 27.1 (as of 21 December 2016)
• Government Fiscal Year: January 1 to December 31
• Key Institutions:
  • IBRD: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
  • IFC: International Finance Corporation
  • MIGA: Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
• Conflict Impact: The conflict in Donbas has resulted in over 2.7 million displaced persons and significant economic disruption.
• Economic Recovery: Real GDP growth in 2016 was 2.3%, with projections of 2% in 2017 and 4% in 2018-2019 if reforms are accelerated.
• Fiscal and Debt Trends:
  • Public and guaranteed debt reached 81% of GDP in 2016.
  • The fiscal deficit (including Naftogaz) was 3.1% of GDP in 2017.
• External Debt: Rose from 79% of GDP in 2013 to 130% of GDP in 2016.
• International Reserves: Reached US$15.5 billion (3.4 months of imports) by end-2016.
• Social Subsidies: The Household Utility Subsidy (HUS) program helped mitigate the impact of rising energy prices on poor households.
• Reforms Implemented: Include flexible exchange rates, fiscal consolidation, energy tariff reforms, and anticorruption measures.

Conclusion

The CPF for Ukraine is a strategic document that outlines the WBG's role in supporting the country's development agenda. It emphasizes the need for policy and institutional reforms, fiscal discipline, and improved public service delivery to achieve sustainable economic recovery and inclusive growth. The document also highlights the challenges of state capture and corruption, which have historically impeded reform efforts. To overcome these challenges, the WBG proposes a comprehensive and coordinated approach involving multiple stakeholders and institutions.