2016年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_Tunisia_for_the_Period_FY_2016-2020_102页_1mb

Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Tunisia (FY2016-FY2020) Summary

Core Content

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Tunisia, developed jointly by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), International Finance Corporation (IFC), and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), outlines the World Bank Group (WBG) strategy for the period FY2016–FY2020. It is based on the Government of Tunisia's "Note d'Orientation Stratégique" from September 2015 and the WBG's Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Strategy from October 2015. The CPF is informed by the June 2015 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD), which identified key development challenges and opportunities.

Main Points

A. Economic Outlook

• Tunisia experienced rapid poverty reduction during the first decade of the 2000s, but these gains were not sustainable due to high youth unemployment, elite capture, and persistent inequalities.
• WBG forecasts GDP growth to rebound modestly to 1.8% in 2016, then recover to 2.5–3% by 2018.
• The economic performance was negatively impacted by social tensions, terrorism, and weak external demand in 2015, with GDP growth at 0.8%.
• The fiscal deficit increased from 2.7% to 5% of GDP between 2010 and 2014, and public debt rose from 42.8% to 49.4% of GDP.

B. Key Development Challenges

• Macroeconomic Stability: The economy has large vulnerabilities that, if not addressed through structural reforms, will prevent achieving full growth potential.
• Cohesion and Security: Restoring security and social cohesion is essential for a new growth trajectory. The 2016 budget allocated more to counter-terrorism, but long-term stability requires addressing economic and social exclusion.
• Improved Governance: Governance remains weak, with limited accountability, poor service delivery, and lack of citizen participation. Strengthening governance is a prerequisite for equitable and inclusive growth.

C. Drivers of Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity

• Private Sector-Driven Job Creation: Simplify regulations, improve access to credit, and enhance the efficiency of the banking system.
• Equality of Opportunities and Resilience: Transparent policies to reduce skills mismatch, increase employment protection, strengthen the social protection system, and target regional and institutional inequalities.

D. Government Program and Medium-Term Strategy

• The Government's "Note d'Orientation Stratégique" outlines a five-pillar development model:
  1. Good Governance: Fight corruption, reduce administrative barriers, and increase opportunities for all citizens.
  2. Shifting to a Hub Economy: Increase productivity and position Tunisian businesses in global value chains.
  3. Human Development and Social Inclusion: Focus on quality education, women's participation, improved health outcomes, and a robust social protection system.
  4. Tackling Regional Disparities: Reduce disparities between coastal and lagging regions through infrastructure and entrepreneurship support.
  5. Promoting Green Growth: Ensure sustainable resource use, rationalize water and energy consumption, and promote modern agricultural systems.

E. WBG Program

• The CPF is structured around three pillars:
  1. Strengthening Economic and Fiscal Management: Support private sector job creation and innovation by completing post-2011 reforms.
  2. Reducing Regional Disparities: Focus on improving economic opportunities and living standards in lagging regions.
  3. Increasing Social Inclusion: Target vulnerable groups, promote skills development, transparency, and accountability, and support a renewed social contract.
• The CPF includes new operations such as Development Policy Financing (DPF) to support key reforms like the Investment Code and Competition and Bankruptcy legislation.

F. Principles of Engagement

• The CPF reflects a strategic shift toward supporting those left behind, especially youth and civil society.
• It integrates WBG global knowledge with local context, focusing on strengthening core institutions, promoting transparency, and fostering inclusive service delivery.
• Governance and gender equity are foundational themes, with a holistic approach to address these issues across all WBG initiatives.

G. Risks and Mitigation

• Risks include deterioration of the security situation, capacity constraints, political economy challenges, and macroeconomic and debt sustainability concerns.
• Mitigation strategies include:
  • Applying a political economy filter to all engagements.
  • Using a mix of development policy lending, investment, and analytical work.
  • Involving public and private partners to enhance government accountability.
  • Applying a "readiness for implementation" filter to ensure tangible results.

Key Information

• Currency: Tunisia Dinar (TND), with 1 US$ = 0.50 TND.
• Government Fiscal Year: January 1 – December 31.
• CPF Team: Led by Eileen Murray, with support from Fabrice Houdart, Antoine Courcelle-Labrousse, Persephone Economou, and others.
• Peer Reviewers: Dominique Bichara, Varun Gauri, Ishac Diwan, and Renaud Seligmann.
• Government Officials: H.E. Yassine Brahim (Minister of Development, Investment and International Cooperation), Kalthoum Hamzaoui (General Director of Multilateral Cooperation), and Sonia Ben Nasr (Director of Multilateral Cooperation).

Conclusion

The CPF for Tunisia aims to support the country's transition to a more stable, inclusive, and sustainable economic model, addressing structural weaknesses and promoting equitable growth. It emphasizes the importance of private sector development, regional balance, and social inclusion, while ensuring that governance and gender equity are central to all WBG interventions.