20231108-格林期货-纸浆早报_2页_358kb

Paper Pulp Market Summary

Market View

Paper pulp prices show short-term bullish volatility due to rising international quotations supporting the domestic market, decreasing global inventory, and steady downstream demand from paper manufacturers. However, domestic supply circulation remains modestly positive, forming a moderately upward bias.

Operation Suggestions

Recommendations include观望 (waiting) or buying at low prices to capitalize on potential gains.

Bullish Factors

• Higher demand: Double-glued paper production +22% and coated paper +02% in recent months.
• Price increases by major suppliers: Arauco raised pulp prices by 50 USD/ton (e.g., pine pulp to 780 USD/ton), and Suzano notified a 50 USD/ton increase for eucalyptus pulp, mainly for contract holders.

Bearish Factors

• Supply data: China's exports rose year-on-year but declined monthly in October, and global shipments increased, indicating higher market flow, though inventory days remain relatively stable.

Risk Factors

• External risks: currency fluctuations, oil price changes, reduced factory utilization in downstream sectors, and market liquidity constraints.