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Summary of Deloitte Global Powers of Retailing 2021

Core Content

The Global Powers of Retailing 2021 report ranks the 250 largest retailers worldwide based on FY2019 (fiscal years ended through 30 June 2020) retail revenue data. It provides an analysis of their performance across geographies and product sectors, along with a global economic outlook and insights on the impact of the pandemic on retailing.

Key Statistics

• Aggregate retail revenue: US$4.85 trillion
• Average size of Top 250 retailers: US$19.4 billion
• Minimum retail revenue to be in Top 250: US$4.0 billion
• Composite year-over-year retail revenue growth: 4.4%
• 5-year retail revenue growth (CAGR, FY2014-2019): 5.0%
• Composite net profit margin: 3.1%
• Composite return on assets: 4.3%
• Percentage of Top 250 revenue from foreign operations: 22.2%
• Average number of countries with retail operations: 11.1

Main Points

Global Economic Outlook

• In early 2021, the global economy faced both promise and peril due to the ongoing effects of the pandemic.
• The distribution of vaccines offered hope for economic recovery, but the virus continued to threaten stability, especially in regions with high prevalence or new strains.
• Economic activity and consumer demand are expected to recover, but the way people shop may not return to pre-pandemic patterns, leading to long-term changes in retail.

Impact of the Pandemic on Retail

• Store-based retailers: Suffered from reduced in-store shopping due to social distancing measures and consumer preference for online shopping.
• Grocery retailers: Benefited from increased demand as restaurants closed.
• Online retailers: Grew significantly due to consumers' aversion to in-store shopping.
• K-shaped recovery: Expected, where some sectors (e.g., high-income households) recover faster than others (e.g., lower-income workers).

United States

• The US economy weakened in late 2020 but showed signs of recovery in early 2021.
• Consumer spending on durable goods and digital products increased, while service sectors like travel and hospitality remained weak.
• The US Congress passed significant stimulus packages in late 2020 and early 2021, including the $900 billion and $1.9 trillion stimulus plans.
• The shift toward online retailing is likely to persist, with a potential long-term decline in store-based retailers.

Europe

• A second wave of the virus in late 2020 led to new lockdowns and economic disruption.
• The UK had the best vaccine distribution but also the worst economic performance due to strict restrictions.
• Economic recovery in Europe depends on vaccine rollouts, easing restrictions, and global trade conditions.
• The shift to online retailing was slower compared to the US and China, with recovery still dependent on consumer confidence in physical stores.

China

• China's economy grew at a healthy pace, supported by controlled virus spread and strong exports.
• Online retailing grew significantly, driven by existing mobile commerce infrastructure.
• There are concerns that some of the pandemic-driven shifts may be permanent, especially in consumer behavior.
• The government is managing corporate debt by allowing defaults rather than rolling over loans, aiming for a more stable financial base.

Japan

• Japan's economy had a poor 2020, with real GDP falling 4.8% compared to 2019.
• A strong fourth-quarter rebound, driven by eased restrictions and subsidies, led to a 12.7% annualized growth.
• Consumer demand for durable goods improved, while service and travel demand remained weak.
• The absence of foreign visitors during the Summer Olympics could suppress spending.

Emerging Markets

• Emerging markets experienced a temporary economic collapse followed by increased debt.
• Recovery is contingent on vaccine distribution, global commodity prices, remittances, and the tourism industry.
• Rising US bond yields caused capital outflows and currency depreciation, with some countries responding by increasing interest rates.

Top 10 Highlights (FY2019)

Key Observations

• Amazon overtook Costco to become the second-largest retailer in the world, driven by strong online growth.
• Walmart remained the largest, but its international revenue declined due to currency fluctuations and divestitures.
• The Top 10 retailers are primarily US-based, with a few European and Asian companies.
• The report highlights the long-term structural changes in retail, including the rise of e-commerce, omnichannel strategies, and the shift toward online services.
• The global economy's recovery is closely tied to the success of vaccine distribution and the easing of restrictions.
• Emerging markets face significant challenges in recovery, including high debt levels and reliance on external factors.