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Summary of Deloitte's Global Powers of Retailing 2021

Core Content

Deloitte's Global Powers of Retailing 2021 report ranks the top 250 global retailers based on FY2019 (fiscal years ended through 30 June 2020) retail revenue. It provides an in-depth analysis of the performance of these retailers across different geographies and product sectors, alongside a global economic outlook and insights into the impact of the pandemic on the retail industry.

The report highlights that the aggregate retail revenue of the Top 250 reached US$4.85 trillion, with an average size of US$19.4 billion per company. The minimum retail revenue required to be among the Top 250 was US$4.0 billion, and the composite year-over-year retail revenue growth was 4.4%, while the 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 5.0%. Over 64.8% of the Top 250 have foreign operations, contributing 22.2% of the total aggregate retail revenue.

Key Findings

• Global Economic Outlook:
  The early months of 2021 were marked by both promise and peril due to the ongoing impact of the pandemic. While the distribution of vaccines offered hope for economic recovery, the virus still posed a threat to stability, especially in regions where it remained active. The report suggests that consumer behavior may not return to pre-pandemic patterns, potentially leading to a permanent shift in retail dynamics.

• Impact of the Pandemic:
  The pandemic acted as a "perfect storm" for many retailers, causing suppressed economic activity, reduced consumer mobility, and a shift toward online shopping. Grocery retailers and online platforms benefited from these changes, while traditional store-based retailers faced a decline in foot traffic and sales. A "K-shaped recovery" is anticipated, where some sectors recover faster than others, exacerbating income inequality.

• United States:
  The US economy showed signs of recovery in late 2020, with a significant boost from the US$900 billion stimulus package passed in December 2020. The US$1.9 trillion stimulus plan in March 2021 is expected to further boost growth but could also risk inflation. Consumer spending on durable goods and digital services increased, while service-based sectors such as travel and hospitality remained weak.

• Europe:
  Europe faced a second wave of the virus in October 2020, leading to lockdowns and economic slowdowns. The UK, despite being the most successful in vaccine distribution, experienced the worst economic performance due to strict restrictions. The shift to online retail was less pronounced than in the US, with recovery more dependent on consumer confidence returning to physical stores.

• China:
  China's economy continued to grow at a healthy pace, driven by consumer confidence and strong exports. The retail sector saw a significant rise in online sales, which may persist even after the pandemic. However, there are concerns about slowing growth and the impact of local outbreaks on economic activity.

• Japan:
  Japan's economy was weak in 2020 but rebounded strongly in the fourth quarter with a 12.7% real GDP growth. Despite this, the economy remained 1.2% below 2019 levels. The absence of foreign visitors affected the tourism sector, which is a key part of Japan's economy.

• Emerging Markets:
  Emerging markets experienced a temporary economic collapse during the pandemic, followed by an increase in debt. Recovery will depend on vaccine distribution, commodity prices, remittances, and the global trade environment. Countries with debts denominated in foreign currencies face greater challenges in servicing those debts.

Top 10 Highlights

Main Trends and Observations

• Amazon's Rise: Amazon became the second-largest global retailer in FY2019, surpassing Costco, due to strong online growth and strategic investments.
• Omnichannel Expansion: Walmart continued to expand its omnichannel strategy, including the launch of Walmart+ and digital initiatives in various markets.
• Shift to E-commerce: The shift toward e-commerce was more pronounced in the US and China, with a slower adoption in Europe.
• Debt and Financial Management: In China, the government's approach to managing corporate debt and the impact of this on financial stability is a key concern.
• Global Supply Chain Redesign: The report suggests that global companies will focus more on resilience, redundancy, and diversification in supply chains, reducing reliance on China and increasing exposure to Southeast Asia and Latin America.
• Strategic Acquisitions and Divestitures: Companies like Costco, Kroger, and Walgreens Boots Alliance made strategic moves in acquiring and divesting businesses to adapt to changing market conditions.

Conclusion

The report underscores the transformative effects of the pandemic on the global retail industry, with lasting changes in consumer behavior, supply chain strategies, and the economic landscape. While some regions show signs of recovery, others remain vulnerable to the virus's impact. The Top 250 retailers are adapting to these changes, with a focus on online growth, cost efficiency, and financial resilience.