2024-06-02-亚开行-CAREC的低成本承运人机会_航空运输自由化和疫情后复苏（英）_138页_6mb

Summary of Document: LOW-COST CARRIER OPPORTUNITIES, AIR TRANSPORT LIBERALIZATION, AND POST-PANDEMIC RECOVERY IN CAREC

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the growth and recovery of the air transport market in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) region, focusing on the role of low-cost carriers (LCCs) and the need for regulatory and infrastructural improvements. It includes data from 2019 to 2023, highlighting the recovery of international seat capacity, the expansion of LCCs, and the challenges and opportunities in the CAREC aviation sector.

Main Points

• Market Recovery: The CAREC region has seen rapid recovery in air transport capacity since the pandemic. As of Q3 2023, scheduled international seat capacity in CAREC reached 122% of 2019 levels, with most countries (excluding Turkmenistan) showing full or near-full recovery.

• LCC Growth: LCCs have been key drivers of recovery and growth in the CAREC region. In 2022, LCCs accounted for 25% of total international seat capacity in CAREC, up from 17% in 2019. In Central Asia, LCCs made up 15% of international capacity in 2022, compared to 5% in 2019.

• Key Countries: FlyArystan (Kazakhstan) is the largest LCC in the CAREC region, capturing 23% of LCC seat capacity in 2022. Uzbekistan Express (Uzbekistan Airways) and Buta Airways (Azerbaijan Airlines) are also major players. Foreign LCCs, such as flydubai and Air Arabia, have played a significant role in the growth of the CAREC LCC market.

• Intra-CAREC Connectivity: Intra-CAREC routes have grown significantly, reaching 59 routes in 2023. However, most are not year-round and some have been suspended. The intra-CAREC market remains small, accounting for 7% of total international capacity in 2023.

• Domestic Market: Only Kazakhstan and Pakistan have sizable domestic markets. Kazakhstan's domestic seat capacity increased by 50% in 2023 compared to 2019, while Pakistan's remained flat. Other CAREC countries have seen limited domestic LCC development.

• International Markets: The Russian Federation is the largest individual international market for CAREC, accounting for 24% of total international seat capacity. The GCC and Türkiye have also seen strong growth. CAREC-India capacity increased due to new services by FlyArystan and IndiGo, but India remains a small market for CAREC.

• Airport Costs: High airport charges, fees, and taxes in CAREC countries are a major obstacle for LCC growth. These costs are often higher than in other regions, making it difficult for LCCs to offer competitive fares and attract passengers.

• Regulatory Environment: Most CAREC countries have not fully adopted "open skies" policies, which would allow for more traffic rights and competition. The document emphasizes the need for further liberalization to enable LCCs to expand and thrive.

• Opportunities: The study identifies several opportunities for growth, including:

  • Expanding intra-CAREC routes
  • Developing domestic LCCs
  • Diversifying international markets
  • Improving airport infrastructure to support LCCs

Key Recommendations

Intra-CAREC

1. Provide fifth and seventh freedom rights to allow both local and foreign airlines to operate routes within CAREC.
2. Implement a universal visa-free policy for all CAREC countries to boost tourism and connectivity.
3. Reduce taxes, fees, and charges for intra-CAREC flights to encourage more services.
4. Establish incentive programs to support new intra-CAREC routes.

Domestic

1. Develop policies and programs to support domestic air transport, especially LCCs.
2. Examine new funding mechanisms for domestic subsidies and fare regulation.
3. Conduct a separate study on domestic LCC opportunities in Pakistan, given its unique market conditions.

International

1. Review airport pricing structures to avoid deterring new market entrants, particularly LCCs.
2. Implement policies to reduce international airfares, which are a major barrier to tourism.
3. Encourage market diversification by reducing reliance on the Russian Federation, GCC, and Türkiye.

Airport Infrastructure

1. Improve airport infrastructure to support LCC operations, including cost reductions and better facilities.
2. Introduce new programs to incentivize LCC route development and enhance connectivity.

Conclusion

The CAREC region has experienced a strong recovery in air transport since the pandemic, driven largely by LCCs. However, challenges such as high airport costs and limited regulatory liberalization remain. The document emphasizes the importance of further reforms to unlock the full potential of LCCs and enhance connectivity within and outside the region. The recommendations are tailored to each market segment and country, with a focus on creating a more competitive and sustainable aviation environment.