2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Seychelles_First_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_38页_780kb

报告摘要

Seychelles: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria

Core Content

The document outlines the First Review Under the Extended Arrangement and the Request for Modification of Performance Criteria for Seychelles, which is under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The review was conducted from September 17 to 30, 2014, and the staff report was completed on November 25, 2014. The review is part of a three-year Extended Arrangement that expires on June 4, 2017. The program aims to bolster growth, address vulnerabilities, and improve public financial management.

The Seychelles economy showed strong performance in the first half of 2014, with increased reserves, stronger-than-expected tax revenues, and fiscal discipline. However, external pressures emerged mid-2014 due to weaker tourism and tuna exports, strong domestic demand, and rising imports, leading to a 11% depreciation of the Seychelles Rupee.

Main Points

Economic Developments

The economy performed well in the first half of 2014, with reserves exceeding projections and FDI surpassing expectations.
Inflation was low, at 1.1% yoy in June, but expected to rise due to exchange rate depreciation.
Tourism arrivals declined by 1% yoy, and tuna production was affected by higher electricity costs and shifts to lower-cost locations.
Private sector credit growth surged, fueled by public sector wage increases and SME lending programs, which increased import demand.

Program Performance

All performance criteria for end-June 2014 were met.
All but one of the structural benchmarks were completed, with minor delays due to technical and regulatory issues.
Fiscal policy was tightened, with a primary surplus target for 2014 increased by 1/3% of GDP.
Reserve money was kept below the ceiling, with NIR targets also exceeded.

Policies in the Period Ahead

Fiscal policy will continue to reduce public debt below 50% of GDP by 2018, with a primary surplus target of 3.7% of GDP for 2015.
Monetary policy is tight, with interest rates increased and credit growth controlled.
External stability is supported through exchange rate flexibility and monetary tightening.
Structural reforms are being implemented to improve governance, public financial management, and financial sector regulation.

Key Information

Fiscal Policy

Primary surplus for 2014 exceeded 2% of GDP, and the 2015 target is 3.7% of GDP.
Government spending is being controlled, especially current expenditures, to limit domestic demand.
Wage freeze for government employees in 2015 is expected to reduce wage pressures.
Supplementary budget in 2014 included additional spending on health and Air Seychelles, with planned adjustments to capital expenditures.

Monetary Policy

Interest rates have increased sharply, and reserve money targets are tightened.
Private sector credit is expected to stabilize in Q4 2014 due to limited bank reserves.
Monetary policy will remain tight through 2015 to prevent second-round inflation.
Macro-prudential tools are being developed to manage unsecured consumer lending.

External Stability

Balance of payments pressures are expected to ease gradually in 2015.
Current account deficit is projected to worsen in 2014 to 22.5% of GDP, but improve in 2015 to 20.5% of GDP.
Exchange rate flexibility is maintained, with limited interventions to control volatility.
Reserve adequacy is expected to remain stable, despite external pressures and market inefficiencies.

Structural Agenda

Reforms in public financial management and SOE governance are ongoing.
Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) and National Development Strategy (MTNDS) are approved, providing guidance for future budgets.
Financial Sector Development Implementation Plan (FSDIP) includes capital market development and modernization of banking regulations.
Seychelles Pension Fund is being reformed to deepen capital markets and extend maturity horizons.
SOE governance audits are planned for 2015, with ongoing reforms to reduce risks and improve performance.

Risks

External Risks

A recession in Europe or global financial turbulence could reduce tourism and FDI.
Weak tourism arrivals could impact Air Seychelles and public finances.
Fuel and commodity prices could affect inflation.

Internal Risks

Poor performance by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) could jeopardize growth and debt reduction.
Implementation delays in structural reforms may hinder progress.
Inadequate oversight of SOEs may lead to inefficiencies.

Staff Appraisal

The staff welcomes the strong program implementation and fiscal discipline.
They support the proposed modifications to the performance criteria for end-December 2014.
Continued cooperation with the World Bank and IMF is essential for sustaining reforms.
Further strengthening of internal audit functions and legal frameworks is recommended.

Conclusion

The Seychelles economy is resilient despite external challenges, and the EFF-supported program is on track to achieve its goals. Fiscal and monetary policies are tightening, and structural reforms are advancing to support long-term growth and stability. Risks remain, particularly external shocks and SOE performance, but the authorities are taking proactive measures to address them.