20240306-招银国际-科伦博泰生物-B-06990.HK-A_trailblazer_in_ADC_arena_52页_1mb

Company Overview
Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) is a biotech firm specializing in antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), with a focus on oncology. Key shareholders include Kelun Pharmaceutical (68.5%) and MSD (6.1%). The company listed on HKEX in 2023 and raised HK$1.45bn.

Key Business Highlights

• ADC Pipeline: Leading ADC pipeline includes SKB264 (TROP2-targeting ADC), A166 (HER2 ADC), SKB315 (CLDN18.2 ADC), and SKB410 (Nectin-4 ADC).
• Strategic Partnerships: Out-licensed ex-China rights for seven ADC assets to MSD (USD$11.8bn potential).
• Commercial Strategy: Initiate at BUY with TP HK$152.26, driven by SKB264 commercial rollout starting in TNBC market in 2025.

Financial Analysis and Valuation

• Revenue Projections: FY23E revenue RMB1.35bn; 2030E target RMB4.3bn in China, RMB1.2bn internationally.
• Profitability: Anticipate profitability by FY27E, narrowing losses to RMB337mn in 2023E.
• DCF Valuation: Target price HK$152.26 (DCF model, WACC 10.47%, terminal growth 3.0%).

Key Risks

• Clinical/regulatory failures, competition, and collaboration uncertainties.

Analyst Rating

• BUY (Target Price HK$152.26) with 30.4% upside from current price HK$116.80.