20180814-兴业金融证券-金山软件-03888.HK-Profit_Warning_5页_254kb
报告摘要
Kingsoft 2H18 Profit Warning Summary
Core Content
Kingsoft issued a profit warning for its 3Q18 and full-year 2018 results, citing three main reasons for the expected losses:
- Delay in the launch of JX Mobile III: Originally planned for October 2018, the launch is now expected in early 2019, which could reduce 2018 profits by CNY300-400 million.
- Losses in the competitive cloud business: The company is now guiding that losses in this segment will be larger than last year's, indicating a worsening situation.
- R&D investments in office software businesses: Increased spending on R&D is contributing to financial pressure.
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | Dec-16 | Dec-17 | Dec-18F | Dec-19F | Dec-20F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Turnover (CNYm) | 3,834 | 5,181 | 6,872 | 9,652 | 12,394 |
| Reported Net Profit (CNYm) | (271) | 978 | 1,228 | 1,990 | 2,720 |
| Recurring Net Profit (CNYm) | 954 | 1,213 | 1,502 | 2,170 | 2,900 |
| Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) | 73.4 | 27.2 | 23.8 | 44.5 | 33.6 |
| Recurring EPS (CNY) | 0.74 | 0.91 | 1.10 | 1.59 | 2.12 |
| DPS (CNY) | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Recurring P/E (x) | 19.2 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 |
| P/B (x) | 2.33 | 1.61 | 1.47 | 1.29 | 1.10 |
| P/CF (x) | 19.8 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 5.0 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 6.64 | 1.04 | 1.41 | 1.00 | 0.61 |
| Return on Average Equity (%) | (3.4) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 14.1 | 16.6 |
Main Views and Key Information
- Profit Warning: Kingsoft's 3Q18 and full-year 2018 results may be loss-making due to the aforementioned reasons.
- Share Price Evaluation: The company's share price has not yet fully reflected these negative factors, and the analyst believes the market may react with a downward correction.
- Rating and Target Price: The analyst has placed the "Buy" rating and HKD32.52 target price under review, pending the release of the annual results on 21 August 2018.
- Market Uncertainty: The potential further delay of JX Mobile III could affect the company's performance in 2019 as well.
- Analyst: Yujie Li, with contact details provided.
Investment Research Disclaimers
- This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
- The information is based on publicly available sources and has not been independently verified.
- RHB disclaims any liability for losses resulting from reliance on this report.
- Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties.
- The report may contain content from third parties, and RHB does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
- The report is confidential and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior consent.
Distribution Restrictions
- Malaysia: Distributed by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd.
- Thailand: Distributed by RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL, a licensed securities company.
- Indonesia: Not an offering document and should not be construed as an offer of securities.
- Singapore: Distributed to accredited, expert, and institutional investors only.
- Hong Kong: Distributed by RHB Securities Hong Kong Limited (RHBSHK), a licensed securities firm.
Ownership and Conflicts of Interest
- RHBHK (RHB Hong Kong Limited and its affiliates) has no direct financial interest in the companies covered.
- RHBSHK analysts and associates are prohibited from owning securities of the companies they cover.
- RHBHK may have had investment banking relationships with the companies covered, which could lead to potential conflicts of interest.
Contact Information
| Location | Address | Contact Details |
|---|---|---|
| Kuala Lumpur | RHBS Research Institute Sdn Bhd, Level 3A, Tower One, RHB Centre | Tel: + (60) 3 9280 8888 |
| Hong Kong | RHB Securities Hong Kong Ltd., 12th Floor, World-Wide House, 19 Des Voeux Road | Tel: + (852) 2525 1118 |
| Singapore | RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd., 10 Collyer Quay, #09-08 | Tel: + (65) 6533 1818 |
| Jakarta | PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia, Wisma Mulia, 20th Floor, Jenderal Gatot SubROTO No. 42 | Tel: + (6221) 2783 0888 |
| Shanghai | RHB (China) Investment Advisory Co. Ltd., Suite 4005, CITIC Square | Tel: + (8621) 6288 9611 |
| Bangkok | RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL, 10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower | Tel: + (66) 2 088 9999 |
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