2024-09-23-莱坊-Melbourne_Industrial_Precinct_Q2_2024_7页_1mb

Melbourne Industrial Precinct Addendum Summary - Q2 2024

Core Content Overview

The document provides an analysis of the industrial market performance across different precincts in Melbourne for Q2 2024, focusing on demand, supply, vacancy levels, and yields. It highlights regional trends, including the impact of new supply on vacancy rates, and the dynamics of leasing activity.

Main Market Trends

Demand

• Prime Rents:
  • Rose in all precincts, with the highest increase in the East (+2.5% q/q), reaching $123/sqm.
  • The North and West saw modest increases of +0.7% and +0.8% respectively, with the North at $135/sqm and the West at $132/sqm.
• Take-up:
  • The North experienced a significant rebound in take-up (+68.6% q/q), totaling 102,164 sqm.
  • The West saw a sharp increase of +120.0% q/q, reaching 125,887 sqm.
  • The East had a more than double increase in take-up from Q1, reaching 6,996 sqm.
  • The Southeast had a moderate increase of +22.4% q/q, reaching 92,642 sqm.
• Prime Yields:
  • The North and East saw a decline in prime yields, with the North down 12 bps to 5.75% and the East remaining flat at 5.50%.
  • The Southeast had flat prime yields at 5.50%.

Supply

• New Supply in 2024:
  • The West accounted for the largest share of new supply, with 712,224 sqm coming on, representing 61.2% of the total.
  • The North had 169,478 sqm of new supply in 2024.
  • The East had no new supply in 2024, as most of the precinct is "built out."
• New Supply in 2025:
  • The North is expected to deliver 541,124 sqm of new space, significantly increasing its supply.
  • The West's supply pipeline will moderate to 300,942 sqm.
  • The East will see a new business park in Kilsyth with 37,138 sqm of space.
• Vacancy Levels:
  • The North's vacancy levels increased by 80.6% q/q to 250,237 sqm.
  • The West's vacancy levels rose to 488,406 sqm, an increase of 14.4% q/q.
  • The East's vacancy levels remain historically low at 5,947 sqm, with a slight decline of 64.3% q/q.
  • The Southeast's vacancy levels dropped by 24.0% q/q to 111,326 sqm, remaining the lowest among all precincts.

Key Information

Vacancy Rates Q2 2024

Regional Highlights

• North:
  • Strongest new supply in 2024 and a significant increase in vacancy levels.
  • Prime rents and take-up rebounded after a weak Q1.
• West:
  • Largest new supply in 2024, contributing to a rise in vacancy rates.
  • Take-up increased sharply due to higher availability.
• Southeast:
  • Lowest vacancy levels, with strong supply pipeline.
  • Prime rents and take-up remained stable.
• East:
  • Lowest prime rents in Melbourne, with minimal leasing activity.
  • No new supply in 2024, but a new business park is expected in mid-2025.

Key Insights

• Supply-Demand Imbalance: The Southeast continues to have the lowest vacancy levels, indicating strong demand and limited supply, while the West and North face increasing vacancies due to new supply.
• Leasing Activity: The West and North saw the most significant increases in take-up, suggesting a shift in tenant activity towards these areas.
• Yield Trends: Prime yields in the North and East softened, while the Southeast maintained flat yields.
• Future Outlook: The North is set for a major supply increase in 2025, which may impact future vacancy and rental rates. The East is expected to see new developments, which could change its current low vacancy status.

Contact Information

• Joel Davy
  Industrial Logistics, VIC
  +61 3 9604 4674
  Joel.Davy@au.knightfrank.com

• Steve Jones
  Industrial Logistics, VIC
  +61 3 9604 4723
  Steve.Jones@au.knightfrank.com

• Stuart Gill
  Industrial Logistics, Eastern Office, VIC
  +61 3 8545 8603
  Stuart.Gill@au.knightfrank.com

• Tony McGough
  Research & Consulting, VIC
  +61 3 9604 4609
  Tony.McGough@au.knightfrank.com

• James Templeton
  Industrial Logistics, National Head
  +61 3 9604 4724
  James.Templeton@au.knightfrank.com

• Andrew Gallucci
  Industrial Logistics, VIC
  +61 3 9604 4666
  Andrew.Gallucci@au.knightfrank.com

• Daniel De Sanctis
  Industrial Logistics, VIC
  +61 3 9604 4666
  Daniel.DeSanctis@au.knightfrank.com

• Laurence Panozzo
  Research & Consulting, VIC
  +61 3 9604 4695
  Laurence.Panozzo@au.knightfrank.com