2025-09-04-莱坊-Belgium_Industrial_Report_H1_2025页_3mb

Summary of The Belgian Industrial Market H1 2025

Core Content

The Belgian industrial market, particularly the semi-industrial and logistics sectors, experienced significant investment activity and market dynamics in the first half of 2025. The market is shaped by both domestic and international factors, including economic forecasts, occupier trends, and geopolitical developments.

Economic Outlook

• GDP Growth: Predicted to grow at around 1% annually from 2025 to 2027, driven by domestic stability despite international uncertainties.
• Inflation: Expected to fall below 2% in 2026 but rise temporarily in 2027 due to the ETS2 system.
• Unemployment: Projected to remain low at around 6%, supported by 100,000 new jobs over the period.
• Public Deficit: Continues to widen, reaching 5.6% of GDP by 2027, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Occupier Trends

• Semi-Industrial:

  • Total take-up: 383,000 sq m.
  • Q2 take-up: 170,500 sq m.
  • Completions: 45,000 sq m.
  • Stock: 18.31 million sq m.
  • Prime rent: €80/sq m/year.
  • Average rent: €53/sq m/year.
  • Prime yield: 6.50%.
  • Invested volume: €174 million.
  • Most transactions were in the 100-400 sq m range, with only a few over 5,000 sq m.
  • Median transaction size: 500 sq m.

• Logistics:

  • Total take-up: 289,000 sq m.
  • Q2 take-up: 102,500 sq m.
  • Completions: 135,500 sq m.
  • Stock: 27.26 million sq m.
  • Prime rent: €75/sq m/year.
  • Average rent: €51/sq m/year.
  • Prime yield: 4.90%.
  • Invested volume: €587 million.
  • 3PL occupiers dominated the market with 39% of take-up (112,000 sq m).
  • Consumer goods companies followed with 26% of take-up (77,000 sq m).
  • Grade A deals accounted for nearly 75% of new take-up, while Grade B deals contributed 18%.
  • Key logistics deals include the 49,000 sq m Big Bear in Flanders and the 65,000 sq m Kellogg's DC in Mechelen.

Market Outlook

• Casa Closures: The closure of Casa's distribution centre, including the 60,000 sq m Olen DC, highlights the challenges faced by retailers, creating well-located vacancies.
• Defence Spending: Increased European defence budgets may drive demand for secure and adaptable logistics facilities in Belgium, aligned with NATO objectives.
• Liège Airport Extension: The development of 'Jolive', a 10.7-hectare logistics site, is expected to be available from July 2026, supporting the airport's projected growth.

Rents

• Semi-Industrial:
  • Prime rents: €80/sq m/year in Flanders and Greater Brussels.
  • Average rents: €53/sq m/year, with little volatility over the past 18 months.
• Logistics:
  • Prime rents: €75/sq m/year in Greater Brussels, €60/sq m/year in Flanders, and €56/sq m/year in Wallonia.
  • Average rents: €51/sq m/year in Q2 2025 due to the strong share of lower Grade take-up.

Deliveries & Pipeline

• Semi-Industrial:
  • Deliveries in H1: 45,000 sq m, mostly in Greater Brussels.
  • Projected deliveries by 2028: 318,000 sq m, with a focus on business parks.
• Logistics:
  • Deliveries in H1: 135,500 sq m, all as build-to-suit or prelet projects.
  • Projected deliveries by 2028: 859,000 sq m, with only 123,000 sq m launched speculatively.
  • Grey space availability has become more pronounced due to excess capacity managed by third-party logistics providers.

Investment Activity

• Semi-Industrial:
  • Total investment: €174 million, surpassing annual totals from the previous four years.
  • Notable deal: WDP's €100 million purchase of the former Renault site in Vilvoorde.
• Logistics:
  • Total investment: €587 million, driven by strong occupier demand and low vacancy.
  • Key deals: Deka Immobilien's €110 million acquisition of the Kellogg's DC, and US investors' €211 million in acquisitions.
  • Weerts' sale of a 250,000 sq m portfolio to Intervest will add €300 million to the year's total, pushing 2025 towards a €1 billion milestone.

Yields

• Semi-Industrial:
  • Prime yield: 6.60% for conventional lease covenants.
• Logistics:
  • Prime yield: 4.90% in H1 2025.
  • Long-term prime yield: 4.70%.

Key Information

• The Belgian industrial market is attracting international investment, with logistics leading in terms of volume and value.
• Semi-industrial activity has slightly declined, but logistics saw a boost in June with larger transactions.
• The market is influenced by geopolitical factors, such as the US-EU trade deal and the potential impact of the new Merz government in Germany.
• Companies are shifting focus towards resilience in supply chains, favoring flexible, energy-efficient, and well-located warehouses.
• Institutional investors, such as WDP and CBRE IM, are playing a key role in the market, especially in redeveloping dated properties into logistics facilities.

Conclusion

The Belgian industrial market remains robust and attractive, with strong investment flows and a strategic location in Europe. Despite challenges such as geopolitical uncertainty and economic policy adjustments, the market continues to show resilience, driven by occupier demand and the country's role as a logistics hub. The focus on flexibility, sustainability, and supply chain resilience is expected to shape the market in the coming years.