> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Melbourne Industrial State of the Market Q4 2025 Vacancy rose further in Q4-25, however incentives remained stable and take-up was resilient. With limited new supply expected over the next 2-years, market conditions are likely to strengthen in 2026. knightfrank.com.au/research # Leasing overview # Development activity is forecast to slow markedly in 2026 and 2027 - Prime net face rents remained flat q/q averaging $151/sqm but have risen 4.4% y/y - Prime incentives remain elevated at $20.3\%$ across Melbourne, their highest level since Q3-17 Take-up was resilient over 2025 despite subdued conditions with $1.07\mathrm{m}$ sqm of space let in 2025 - The vacancy rate sits at $4.1\%$ up $0.5\%$ q/q, now well above the 10-year average of $2.6\%$ - New supply in 2025 totalled 729k sqm, down $33\%$ from 2024 when 1.08m sqm was delivered - Development activity is expected to fall further in 2026 with only 584k sqm forecast Melbourne industrial rents and incentives by grade, net face rent $ (LHS), and % (RHS) Melbourne industrial new supply by precinct, 000's sqm Melbourne industrial take-up by precinct, 000's sqm Melbourne industrial vacancy rate total market vacancy% Industrial Market Indicators - Q4 2025 <table><tr><td>Precinct</td><td>Prime net face rent ($/sqm)</td><td>% change q/q</td><td>Prime incentives (%)</td><td>Land values <5,000 sqm ($/sqm)</td><td>Vacancy rate (%)</td><td>Take-up (sqm)</td><td>Prime Core market yield (%)</td><td>Share of total stock (%)</td></tr><tr><td>City Fringe</td><td>190</td><td>0.0</td><td>12.5</td><td>2,300</td><td>2.1</td><td>11,222</td><td>5.3</td><td>6.1</td></tr><tr><td>North</td><td>143</td><td>0.0</td><td>21.7</td><td>900</td><td>6.0</td><td>63,661</td><td>5.8</td><td>17.6</td></tr><tr><td>East</td><td>138</td><td>0.0</td><td>21.3</td><td>900</td><td>1.5</td><td>0</td><td>5.5</td><td>7.6</td></tr><tr><td>Southeast</td><td>145</td><td>0.0</td><td>19.4</td><td>1,040</td><td>3.7</td><td>71,806</td><td>5.5</td><td>32.3</td></tr><tr><td>West</td><td>138</td><td>0.4</td><td>26.7</td><td>855</td><td>4.6</td><td>109,285</td><td>5.8</td><td>36.4</td></tr></table> *Restated sample Source: Knight Frank Research # Investment overview # Investment volumes declined across 2025, while yields remained stable - Prime industrial yields remained flat at $5.6\%$ for the seventh quarter in the row - Industrial investment volumes totalled $3.1 billion AUD across 2025, down $23\%$ from 2024 - Whilst volumes fell the number of sales was consistent with 2025 at 173 compared to 172 in 2024 - Prime capital values average $2,700/sqm across Melbourne, up 0.1% q/q and 4.4% y/y • Land values for small sized lots (<5,000 sqm) average $1,199/sqm, up $20/sqm over Q4-2025 • Medium (1-5 ha) and large (10+ ha) sized lots remained flat q/q at $922/sqm and $302/sqm Melbourne industrial yields by grade $\%$ (LHS), and spread in bps (RHS) Melbourne industrial capital values by grade % Melbourne industrial land values by lot size, $/sqm Melbourne industrial investment volumes volume A$m (LHS), and number of sales (RHS) Recent Significant Investment Sales <table><tr><td>Property</td><td>Precinct</td><td>Price ($m)</td><td>Building Size (sqm)</td><td>Land Size (sqm)</td><td>Purchaser</td><td>Vendor</td><td>Yield (%)</td></tr><tr><td>57 Northgate Drive, Thomastown</td><td>North</td><td>24.0</td><td>13,667</td><td>28,568</td><td>Private</td><td>Local Private Equity</td><td>6.24</td></tr><tr><td>56-60 Toll Drive, Altona North</td><td>West</td><td>34.0</td><td>17,218</td><td>38,010</td><td>Cadence Property</td><td>Stockland</td><td>6.29</td></tr><tr><td>50 Jayco Drive & 15-31 American Way, Dandenong South</td><td>Southeast</td><td>47.5</td><td>18,982</td><td>35,500</td><td>Dexus</td><td>NGS Super</td><td>5.59</td></tr></table> Source: Knight Frank Research # Vacancy remains elevated across the precinct at $6.0\%$ 64k Take-up Q4-2025 +14.5% q/q 6.0% Vacancy Last QTR = 4.9% Q4-2024 = 4.2% \$143/sqm Prime net face rent +0.0% q/q +3.6% y/y 21.7% Prime incentive Last QTR = 20.4% Q4-2024 = 16.3% 290k Sqm new supply forecast in 2026 +90k sqm in 2027 5.8% Prime yield +0 bps q/q +0 bps y/y # KEYTRENDS - Prime net face rents in the North remained flat q/q at $143/sqm but have risen 3.6% y/y. - Prime incentives rose a further $1.3\%$ q/q now averaging $21.7\%$ . They are as high as $32.5\%$ in Craigieburn, and $30\%$ in Somerton & Campbellfield. Take-up was moderate in the North over Q4-25 with 64k sqm recorded across two deals. The vacancy rate in the North is the highest of any precinct in Melbourne at $6.0\%$ , up $1.1\%$ q/q. - Approximately $42.5\%$ of vacancy in the North is made up of recently completed speculative warehouses at estates such as North Melbourne Logistics Hub, Broadmeadows Logistics Estate, M80 Connect, and Coolaroo Industry Park. - In 2026 the North is forecast to add 290k sqm of new supply to the market, although most of this is for Amazon's new multi-level automated warehouse in Craigieburn (209k sqm) North industrial rents and incentives North industrial take-up by commitment type and grade, 000's sqm North industrial vacancy rate total vacancy rate compared to 10-year average $(\%)$ North industrial new supply bycommitmenttype,000'sqm # 109k Take-up Q4-2025 -18.0% q/q # 4.6% Vacancy Last QTR = 4.8% Q4-2024 = 4.0% # \$138/sqm Prime net face rent +0.4% q/q +4.4% y/y # 26.7% Prime incentive Last QTR = 26.4% Q4-2024 = 19.5% # 168k Sqm new supply forecast in 2026 +182k sqm in 2027 # 5.8% Prime yield +0 bps q/q +0 bps y/y # KEYTRENDS - Prime net face rents in the West have risen $0.4\%$ q/q and $4.4\%$ y/y, now averaging $138/sqm. - Take-up in the West totalled 109k over Q4-25, approximately $46\%$ of the leasing activity came from existing prime warehouses, the other $54\%$ from existing secondary warehouses. - Amongst these deals was New Aim moving into 25k sqm of secondary warehousing on William Angliss Drive in Laverton North. - Incentives in the West are the highest of any precinct in Melbourne averaging $26.7\%$ with evidence of recent lease deals having incentives between $30 - 35\%$ . - The vacancy rate in the West sits at $4.6\%$ down $0.2\%$ q/q but remains well above the 10-year average of $3.0\%$ . - New supply in 2025 fell dramatically in the West with only $208\mathrm{k}$ sqm of warehousing added to the market compared to $643\mathrm{k}$ sqm in 2024. West industrial rents and incentives by grade, net face $/sqm$ (LHS), and incentive $\%$ (RHS) West industrial take-up by commitment type and grade, 000's sqm West industrial vacancy rate total market vacancy compared to 10-year average $(\%)$ West industrial new supply by commitment type, 000's sqm # Southeast The vacancy rate reaches a 10-year high of $3.7\%$ 71k Take-up Q4-2025 +50.8% q/q 3.7% Vacancy Last QTR = 2.3% Q4-2024 = 1.8% \$145/sqm Prime net face rent +0.0% q/q +4.5% y/y 19.4% Prime incentive Last QTR = 19.4% Q4-2024 = 16.3% 84k Sqm new supply forecast in 2026 +230k sqm in 2027 5.5% Prime yield +0 bps q/q +0 bps y/y # KEYTRENDS - Prime net face rents remained flat in the Southeast over Q4-25 averaging $145/sqm, they are up 4.5% y/y. Incentives in the Southeast are lower than any precinct in Melbourne (excluding the City Fringe) averaging $19.4\%$ . Vacancy in the Southeast rose markedly over Q4-25 now sitting at $3.7\%$ , well above the 10-year average of $1.6\%$ . - New supply in the Southeast was particularly strong over 2025 with 366k sqm of warehousing added to the market. This figure includes significant completions at Cardinia Logistics Estate, ESR Greenlink, ESR Enterprise Industry Park, and Innovation Park. - New supply is forecast to fall markedly in 2026 with only $84\mathrm{k}$ sqm of warehousing expected to reach completion this year, $64\%$ of which is speculative. Southeast industrial rents and incentives by grade, net face $/sqm$ (LHS), and incentive $\%$ (RHS) Southeast industrial take-up by type and grade, 000's sqm Southeast industrial vacancy rate Southeast industrial new supply by commitment type, 000's sqm # East # Supply to recommence for the first time since 2022 Ok Take-up Q4-2025 +0% q/q 1.5% Vacancy Last QTR = 1.6% Q4-2024 = 1.3% \$138/sqm Prime net face rent +0.0% q/q +3.8% y/y 21.3% Prime incentive Last QTR = 21.3% Q4-2024 = 16.3% 42k Sqm new supply forecast in 2026 +45k sqm in 2027 5.5% Prime yield +0 bps q/q +0 bps y/y # KEYTRENDS - Prime net face rents in the East, like every precinct except the West, remained flat over Q4-25 averaging \(138/sqm. - There were no lease deals $>5,000$ sqm in the East over Q4-25 which is not uncommon given the precincts comparatively smaller size. - The vacancy rate fell marginally over Q4-25, down $0.1\%$ to $1.5\%$ which is well below the 10-year average of $2.8\%$ . - Yields have remained unchanged in the East for 1.8 years, they average $5.5\%$ for prime, and $6.3\%$ secondary. - For the first time since 2022, the East is forecast to deliver a series of new warehouses across two schemes. - Perry Projects Kilsyth Connect will deliver 12k sqm of speculative warehousing in Q2-2026. Charter Hall is redeveloping Mountain Highway Logistics Hub which includes a 30k sqm warehouse purpose built for Cool-Drive, a further 45k sqm of speculative warehousing in 2027. East industrial rents and incentives by grade, net face rent $/sqm (LHS), and % (RHS) East industrial take-up by type and grade, 000's sqm East industrial vacancy rate East industrial new supply by development stage in sqm # Data Digest Prime Grade: Asset with modern design, good condition & utility with an office component 5-30%. Located in an established industrial precinct with good access. Secondary Grade: Asset with an older design, in reasonable/poor condition, inferior to prime stock, with an office component between 10-20%. Take-up: Take-up represents the absorption of existing assets, speculative developments, or pre-commitments $(5,000\mathrm{m}^{2+})$ . Vacancy Methodology: This analysis collects and tabulates data detailing vacancies $(5,000\mathrm{m}^{2 + })$ within industrial properties across all of the Melbourne Industrial Property Market. The buildings are categorised into 1) Existing Buildings - existing buildings for lease. 2) Speculative Buildings - buildings for lease which have been speculatively constructed and although have reached practical completion, still remain vacant. 3) Spec. Under Construction - buildings for lease which are being speculatively constructed and will be available for occupation within 56 months. We like questions, if you've got one about our research, or would like some property advice, we would love to hear from you. Research & Consulting, VIC Tony McGough +61406928820 tony.mcgough@au.knightfrank.com Industrial Logistics, National Head James Templeton +61411525217 james.templeton@au.knightfrank.com Research & Consulting, VIC Laurence Panozzo +61401251876 laurence.panozzo@au.knightfrank.com Industrial Logistics, VIC Joel Davy +61411109876 joel.davy@au.knightfrank.com Valuation & Advisory, VIC Michael Schuh +61412443701 michael.schuh@vic.knightfrank.com.au Industrial Logistics, VIC Stuart Gill +61417322080 stuart.gill@au.knightfrank.com # Recent Research Australian Industrial Review aannnnnne aannnnnne aannnnnne aannnnnne aannnnnne arnnnne Australia Build to Rent Update aannnnnne aannnnnne annnnnne Australia PBSA Update Paaee aae CBD Office Market Report Paaee aannnnnne aen annnnnne arnnnne