2026-02-05-莱坊-Melbourne_Industrial_State_of_the_Market_Q4_2025_8页_1mb

报告摘要

Vacancy rate: Increased to 4.1% in Q4 2025, up 0.5% from the previous quarter, now above the 10-year average of 2.6%.
Take-up: 1.07 million sqm of space was let in 2025, showing resilience despite subdued market conditions.
New Supply: 729k sqm of new supply was delivered in 2025, down 33% from 2024. Development activity is expected to slow significantly in 2026 and 2027, with 584k sqm forecast for 2026 and 90k sqm in 2027.
Prime Net Face Rents: Remained flat at $151/sqm q/q but rose 4.4% y/y.
Prime Incentives: Averaged 20.3% across Melbourne, with the highest levels in the North at 21.7% and West at 26.7%.

Vacancy Rate: Reached 6.0%, the highest in Melbourne, up 1.1% q/q.
Take-up: 64k sqm in Q4 2025, with 46% from existing prime warehouses and 54% from existing secondary warehouses.
New Supply: Forecast to add 290k sqm in 2026 and 182k sqm in 2027, with most of the 2026 supply being speculative for Amazon.
Prime Net Face Rents: Flat at $143/sqm q/q, up 3.6% y/y.
Prime Incentives: Increased to 21.7%, with some recent deals offering incentives between 30-35%.
Prime Yield: Remained stable at 5.8%.

Vacancy Rate: 4.6%, down 0.2% q/q but still above the 10-year average of 3.0%.
Take-up: 109k sqm in Q4 2025, with 46% from existing prime and 54% from secondary.
New Supply: Only 208k sqm added in 2025, down from 643k sqm in 2024.
Prime Net Face Rents: Rose 0.4% q/q and 4.4% y/y to $138/sqm.
Prime Incentives: Averaged 26.7%, the highest in Melbourne.
Prime Yield: Stable at 5.8%.

Vacancy Rate: Reached a 10-year high of 3.7%, up 1.1% q/q.
Take-up: 71k sqm in Q4 2025, up 50.8% q/q.
New Supply: Strong in 2025 with 366k sqm delivered, including major projects like Cardinia Logistics Estate and ESR Greenlink.
Prime Net Face Rents: Flat at $145/sqm q/q, up 4.5% y/y.
Prime Incentives: Averaged 19.4%, the lowest in Melbourne (excluding the City Fringe).
Prime Yield: Stable at 5.5%.

Vacancy Rate: 1.5%, down 0.1% q/q and well below the 10-year average of 2.8%.
Take-up: 0 in Q4 2025, indicating a lack of leasing activity.
New Supply: Expected to restart in 2026 with 42k sqm forecast, marking the first new supply since 2022.
Prime Net Face Rents: Flat at $138/sqm q/q, up 3.8% y/y.
Prime Incentives: Averaged 21.3%, up 5.1% y/y.
Prime Yield: Stable at 5.5%.

Investment Volumes: Declined to $3.1 billion AUD in 2025, down 23% from 2024.
Number of Sales: Remained consistent at 173 sales in 2025 compared to 172 in 2024.
Prime Capital Values: Averaged $2,700/sqm, up 0.1% q/q and 4.4% y/y.
Land Values: Small lots (<5,000 sqm) averaged $1,199/sqm, up $20/sqm q/q. Medium and large lots remained flat at $922/sqm and $302/sqm respectively.
Recent Investment Sales:
- 57 Northgate Drive, Thomastown: Sold for $24.0m, 13,667 sqm, 28,568 sqm land, 6.24% yield.
- 56-60 Toll Drive, Altona North: Sold for $34.0m, 17,218 sqm, 38,010 sqm land, 6.29% yield.
- 50 Jayco Drive & 15-31 American Way, Dandenong South: Sold for $47.5m, 18,982 sqm, 35,500 sqm land, 5.59% yield.

Prime Yield: Remained stable across all precincts at 5.6% to 5.8%.
Vacancy Methodology: Includes existing, speculative, and speculative under construction properties.
Take-up Definition: Refers to the absorption of existing assets, speculative developments, or pre-commitments over 5,000 sqm.

Research & Consulting, VIC: Tony McGough, +61406928820, tony.mcgough@au.knightfrank.com
Industrial Logistics, National Head: James Templeton, +61411525217, james.templeton@au.knightfrank.com
Research & Consulting, VIC: Laurence Panozzo, +61401251876, laurence.panozzo@au.knightfrank.com
Industrial Logistics, VIC: Joel Davy, +61411109876, joel.davy@au.knightfrank.com
Valuation & Advisory, VIC: Michael Schuh, +61412443701, michael.schuh@vic.knightfrank.com.au
Industrial Logistics, VIC: Stuart Gill, +61417322080, stuart.gill@au.knightfrank.com