2026-07-10-莱坊-Melbourne_Industrial_State_of_the_Market_Q2_2026_8页_1mb

Melbourne Industrial Market Summary - Q2 2026

Core Market Overview

• Vacancy Rate: Continues to rise despite strong take-up, reaching 5.0% across the total market.
• Rental Growth: Prime net face rents increased by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) and 5.6% year-over-year (y/y) to an average of $155/sqm.
• Incentives: Incentives have increased significantly, averaging 21.2% across the total market, which offsets some of the rent gains.
• Take-up: Strong take-up of 723,699 sqm in H1 2026, above the 10-year average.
• New Supply: New supply decreased by 37% from 2025 to 530k sqm in 2026, with 33% completed in H1 2026.

Precinct Analysis

City Fringe

• Prime Net Face Rent: $190/sqm, up 5.6% y/y.
• Incentives: 12.5%.
• Vacancy Rate: 2.5%.
• Take-up: 6,650 sqm.

North

• Prime Net Face Rent: $145/sqm, up 3.0% y/y.
• Incentives: 21.7%, up 2.5% y/y.
• Vacancy Rate: 7.7%, the highest among all precincts.
• Take-up: 219,526 sqm in H1 2026.
• New Supply: Forecast to reach 66k sqm in 2026, and 421k sqm in 2027 due to delays in Amazon's Craigieburn fulfillment center.

East

• Prime Net Face Rent: $143/sqm, up 7.5% y/y.
• Incentives: 22.5%, up 3.7% y/y.
• Vacancy Rate: 2.0%, below the 10-year average of 2.7%.
• Take-up: 5,390 sqm.
• New Supply: Forecast at 50k sqm in 2026, with three developments under construction.

Southeast

• Prime Net Face Rent: $156/sqm, up 9.4% y/y.
• Incentives: 23.3%, up 6.4% y/y.
• Vacancy Rate: 4.1%, well above the 10-year average of 1.8%.
• Take-up: 115,415 sqm in H1 2026.
• New Supply: Forecast at 200k sqm in 2026, down from 366k sqm in 2025.

West

• Prime Net Face Rent: $141/sqm, up 2.8% y/y.
• Incentives: 26.1%, up 0.8% q/q.
• Vacancy Rate: 5.7%, above the 10-year average of 3.1%.
• Take-up: 376,718 sqm in H1 2026.
• New Supply: Forecast at 222k sqm in 2026 and 226k sqm in 2027.

Investment Trends

• Prime Yields: Softened by 15 bps to 6.0% in Q2 2026, continuing a two-quarter decline.
• Capital Values: Prime warehousing capital values average $2,581/sqm, down 1.5% q/q and 1.7% y/y.
• Land Values: Small and medium lot sizes remain stable, with growth under 5.0% over the past three years.
• Investment Volumes: Subdued, with only 44 transactions recorded year-to-date (YTD).

Key Trends

• Rental Growth vs. Incentives: Rent growth is being offset by rising incentives, which are a significant factor in effective rent calculations.
• Market Consolidation: Tenants are consolidating and downsizing, contributing to higher take-up but also increasing vacancy rates.
• Supply Constraints: New supply remains low in most precincts, with the West and Southeast forecast to see minimal increases until 2027.
• Speculative Development: Several speculative developments are planned, particularly in the Southeast and West, which could impact supply and demand dynamics.

Summary of Key Metrics

Market Outlook

• Supply Forecast: New supply is expected to remain below the 10-year average in 2026 and 2027, with the North seeing the highest forecast for 2027.
• Demand Dynamics: Strong take-up is driven by tenant consolidation and the need for increased cubic capacity.
• Investor Sentiment: Investment volumes remain low, with yields declining and capital values falling in prime sectors.

Contact Information

• Research & Consulting, VIC: Tony McGough, +61 406 928 820, tony.mcgough@au.knightfrank.com
• Head of Industrial Logistics, VIC: Joel Davy, +61 411 109 876, joel.davy@au.knightfrank.com
• Valuation & Advisory, VIC: Michael Schuh, +61 412 443 701, michael.schuh@vic.knightfrank.com.au
• Industrial Investments: Harley Bown, +61 423 395 582, harley.bowen@au.knightfrank.com
• Industrial Logistics, VIC: Stuart Gill, +61 417 322 080, stuart.gill@au.knightfrank.com