> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** ```markdown # Melbourne Industrial Market Summary - Q2 2026 ## Core Market Overview - **Vacancy Rate**: Continues to rise despite strong take-up, reaching 5.0% across the total market. - **Rental Growth**: Prime net face rents increased by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) and 5.6% year-over-year (y/y) to an average of \$155/sqm. - **Incentives**: Incentives have increased significantly, averaging 21.2% across the total market, which offsets some of the rent gains. - **Take-up**: Strong take-up of 723,699 sqm in H1 2026, above the 10-year average. - **New Supply**: New supply decreased by 37% from 2025 to 530k sqm in 2026, with 33% completed in H1 2026. ## Precinct Analysis ### City Fringe - **Prime Net Face Rent**: \$190/sqm, up 5.6% y/y. - **Incentives**: 12.5%. - **Vacancy Rate**: 2.5%. - **Take-up**: 6,650 sqm. ### North - **Prime Net Face Rent**: \$145/sqm, up 3.0% y/y. - **Incentives**: 21.7%, up 2.5% y/y. - **Vacancy Rate**: 7.7%, the highest among all precincts. - **Take-up**: 219,526 sqm in H1 2026. - **New Supply**: Forecast to reach 66k sqm in 2026, and 421k sqm in 2027 due to delays in Amazon's Craigieburn fulfillment center. ### East - **Prime Net Face Rent**: \$143/sqm, up 7.5% y/y. - **Incentives**: 22.5%, up 3.7% y/y. - **Vacancy Rate**: 2.0%, below the 10-year average of 2.7%. - **Take-up**: 5,390 sqm. - **New Supply**: Forecast at 50k sqm in 2026, with three developments under construction. ### Southeast - **Prime Net Face Rent**: \$156/sqm, up 9.4% y/y. - **Incentives**: 23.3%, up 6.4% y/y. - **Vacancy Rate**: 4.1%, well above the 10-year average of 1.8%. - **Take-up**: 115,415 sqm in H1 2026. - **New Supply**: Forecast at 200k sqm in 2026, down from 366k sqm in 2025. ### West - **Prime Net Face Rent**: \$141/sqm, up 2.8% y/y. - **Incentives**: 26.1%, up 0.8% q/q. - **Vacancy Rate**: 5.7%, above the 10-year average of 3.1%. - **Take-up**: 376,718 sqm in H1 2026. - **New Supply**: Forecast at 222k sqm in 2026 and 226k sqm in 2027. ## Investment Trends - **Prime Yields**: Softened by 15 bps to 6.0% in Q2 2026, continuing a two-quarter decline. - **Capital Values**: Prime warehousing capital values average \$2,581/sqm, down 1.5% q/q and 1.7% y/y. - **Land Values**: Small and medium lot sizes remain stable, with growth under 5.0% over the past three years. - **Investment Volumes**: Subdued, with only 44 transactions recorded year-to-date (YTD). ## Key Trends - **Rental Growth vs. Incentives**: Rent growth is being offset by rising incentives, which are a significant factor in effective rent calculations. - **Market Consolidation**: Tenants are consolidating and downsizing, contributing to higher take-up but also increasing vacancy rates. - **Supply Constraints**: New supply remains low in most precincts, with the West and Southeast forecast to see minimal increases until 2027. - **Speculative Development**: Several speculative developments are planned, particularly in the Southeast and West, which could impact supply and demand dynamics. ## Summary of Key Metrics | Metric | Total Market | Total Excl. City Fringe | |--------|-------------|------------------------| | Prime Net Face Rent (\$/sqm) | 155 | 146 | | Prime Incentives (%) | 21.2 | 23.4 | | Vacancy Rate (%) | 5.0 | 5.2 | | Take-up (sqm) | 723,699 | 717,049 | ## Market Outlook - **Supply Forecast**: New supply is expected to remain below the 10-year average in 2026 and 2027, with the North seeing the highest forecast for 2027. - **Demand Dynamics**: Strong take-up is driven by tenant consolidation and the need for increased cubic capacity. - **Investor Sentiment**: Investment volumes remain low, with yields declining and capital values falling in prime sectors. ## Contact Information - **Research & Consulting, VIC**: Tony McGough, +61 406 928 820, tony.mcgough@au.knightfrank.com - **Head of Industrial Logistics, VIC**: Joel Davy, +61 411 109 876, joel.davy@au.knightfrank.com - **Valuation & Advisory, VIC**: Michael Schuh, +61 412 443 701, michael.schuh@vic.knightfrank.com.au - **Industrial Investments**: Harley Bown, +61 423 395 582, harley.bowen@au.knightfrank.com - **Industrial Logistics, VIC**: Stuart Gill, +61 417 322 080, stuart.gill@au.knightfrank.com ```