国会预算办公室-2023年美国长期预算展望（英）-64页_2mb

报告摘要

Deficits: Projected to grow from 5.8% of GDP in 2023 to 10.0% in 2053, averaging 7.3% over the period.
Debt: Held by the public is expected to rise from 98% of GDP in 2023 to 181% in 2053, posing risks to economic growth and stability.
Spending: Total outlays are projected to increase from 24.2% of GDP in 2023 to 29.1% in 2053, driven primarily by interest costs and healthcare spending.
Revenues: Expected to average 18.4% of GDP from 2023-2053, with individual income taxes contributing the most growth.
Economic Factors: Real GDP growth is projected at 1.7% per year, slower than historical averages, due to aging population, slower labor force growth, and productivity trends.

High Debt Risks: Includes potential for slower economic growth, higher interest payments, and increased vulnerability to fiscal crises.
Demographic Trends: Aging population drives up healthcare and Social Security costs, exacerbating deficits.
Uncertainty: Budget outcomes are uncertain due to unforeseen economic, demographic, or policy changes, and events like severe downturns or climate change could significantly alter projections.

Projected increases in interest rates from current levels, partly offset by slower economic growth and productivity trends.
Federal borrowing reduces private investment, further constraining economic output.

For detailed methodology and assumptions, refer to the full Congressional Budget Office report.

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