国会预算办公室-月度预算审查_2025年2月（英）_6页_739kb

February 2025 Monthly Budget Review Summary

Core Content

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that the federal budget deficit totaled $1.1 trillion in the first five months of fiscal year 2025, which is $319 billion higher than the deficit recorded during the same period in fiscal year 2024. This increase is primarily due to higher outlays and lower-than-expected revenue growth, although revenues did rise by $37 billion (2%).

Key Figures

• Total Receipts (Oct-Feb 2025): $1,893 billion
• Total Outlays (Oct-Feb 2025): $3,040 billion
• Deficit (Oct-Feb 2025): -$1,147 billion

Adjustments for Timing Shifts

• Receipts: If not for timing shifts, the deficit would have been $1,064 billion, or $163 billion more than the deficit at the same point in fiscal year 2024.
• Outlays: Adjusted for timing shifts, the deficit would have been $1,147 billion, or $18 billion more than the previous year.

Main Points

Revenue Trends

• Total Receipts: Increased by $37 billion (2%), driven by:
  • Individual income and payroll taxes: Up by $55 billion (3%)
  • Withheld taxes: Up by $82 billion (6%) due to rising wages and salaries
  • Nonwithheld payments: Down by $31 billion (11%), but $35 billion in nonwithheld income tax payments were shifted into fiscal year 2024 due to postponed deadlines
  • Individual income tax refunds: Down by $5 billion (5%)
• Corporate Income Taxes: Declined by $32 billion (18%) due to delayed payments from natural disaster-affected areas in fiscal year 2023
• Other Receipts: Increased by $14 billion (15%), including:
  • Excise taxes: Up by $6 billion (18%)
  • Miscellaneous fees and fines: Up by $5 billion (50%)
  • Customs duties: Up by $4 billion (13%), following a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese imports
  • Estate and gift taxes: Down by $2 billion (15%)

Outlay Trends

• Total Outlays: Increased by $356 billion (13%), driven by:
  • Social Security Benefits: Up by $38 billion (6%) due to cost-of-living adjustments and increased beneficiaries
  • Medicare: Up by $118 billion (5%) due to higher enrollment and payment rates
  • Medicaid: Up by $15 billion (6%) due to rising costs per enrollee
  • Net Interest on Public Debt: Up by $44 billion (12%) due to higher debt levels
  • Department of Defense (DoD): Up by $27 billion (8%), mainly due to operation and maintenance and procurement
  • Refundable Tax Credits: Up by $26 billion (29%) due to increased enrollment in health insurance programs
  • Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Up by $22 billion, due to grants for clean technologies and energy-efficiency projects
  • Department of Veterans Affairs (VA): Up by $22 billion (16%) due to increased usage of benefits
  • Department of Homeland Security (DHS): Up by $16 billion (45%), largely due to spending on Hurricane response
• Largest Decrease: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) outlays decreased by $68 billion, due to lower bank resolution costs this year compared to fiscal year 2024

February 2025 Deficit

• Estimated Deficit: $308 billion
• Compared to February 2024: $11 billion higher
• Timing Shifts: Adjusted for these, the deficit would have been $312 billion, or $15 billion higher than last year.

Summary of February 2025

• Receipts: $297 billion, up $26 billion (10%)
• Outlays: $605 billion, up $37 billion (7%)
• Deficit: -$308 billion, up $11 billion from February 2024

Major Changes

• Refundable Tax Credits: Outlays increased by $15 billion (29%)
• Net Interest on Debt: Up by $7 billion (10%)
• Social Security: Up by $7 billion (6%)
• Medicare: Up by $6 billion (8%)
• Department of Education: Down by $5 billion (39%)
• Department of Veterans Affairs: Up by $4 billion (15%)
• Department of Homeland Security: Up by $4 billion (50%)
• Department of State: Down by $2 billion (53%)

Conclusion

The February 2025 budget review highlights a significant increase in the federal deficit due to higher outlays and modest revenue growth. Timing shifts in payments and delayed tax collections from the previous fiscal year played a role in these figures. Key drivers of the deficit include increased spending on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and response to natural disasters, while reductions in FDIC outlays and some other programs helped offset the increase. The CBO continues to monitor the situation and will update its estimate of how long the government can operate under the current debt limit measures.