K4D-印度-太平洋地区的冲突与稳定趋势（英文）-2021.1-40页_350kb

Summary of Trends in Conflict and Stability in the Indo-Pacific

Overview

This report explores trends in conflict and instability in the Indo-Pacific region, with a focus on climate change effects and the erosion of civil liberties. The region is highly vulnerable to climate change, which exacerbates existing security risks and challenges. Key trends include an increase in resource-based conflicts, migration-induced violence, and armed insurgencies. All five countries examined—Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand—show concerning patterns in the erosion of freedom of expression, media freedom, freedom of belief, civil society freedom, and the treatment of under-represented groups.

Themes in Relation to Conflict and Stability

Climate Change

There is a scientific consensus that climate change is real and ongoing, but the literature does not support a direct causal link between climate change and conflict. Instead, it is considered a contributing factor that can exacerbate conflict risks in combination with other socio-economic and political factors.

Key Mechanisms by Which Climate Change Can Influence Conflict:

• Diminished access to resources: Climate change reduces water and arable land availability, increasing competition and potential for conflict.
• Food insecurity: Reduced agricultural productivity and rising food prices can lead to social unrest.
• Extreme weather events: These cause economic shocks and livelihood insecurity, which may lead to conflict.
• Environmental migration: Displacement due to climate change can increase tensions in destination areas.
• Sea-level rise and coastal degradation: May lead to migration and conflict in inland areas.
• Reduced economic growth: Weakens government capacity to provide services, potentially leading to instability.
• Increased recruitment to armed groups: Loss of livelihoods and economic opportunities may drive individuals into armed groups.
• Unintended effects of climate policies: Restrictions on land use for climate initiatives can create local opposition and conflict.

Guarding Civic Space and Including All Voices

This theme refers to the protection of civil liberties and the inclusion of all societal voices in decision-making. The report highlights freedom of expression, media freedom, freedom of belief, civil society freedom, and the treatment of under-represented groups as critical areas of concern. The erosion of these rights can contribute to or exacerbate conflict.

Climate Change Effects in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic and socio-economic characteristics. It experiences extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification. Southeast Asia, in particular, is exposed to significant coastal and urban risks from climate change. The region also faces growing geostrategic competition, including maritime boundary disputes and military build-up, which may be compounded by climate change impacts.

Country-Specific Findings

Bangladesh

• Climate Change: Bangladesh is a low-lying delta country, making it highly vulnerable to flooding, erosion, rising sea levels, and salinity intrusion. Climate change is reducing agricultural yields and increasing food insecurity.
• Key Impacts: Reduced crop yields, diminished water resources, health risks, biodiversity loss, and increased energy demands.
• Security Risks: Climate change exacerbates existing tensions, including political violence, violent extremism, and the Rohingya refugee crisis. It also fuels resource-based conflicts and localised clashes over land and water.
• Civil Liberties: Freedom of expression and media freedom are restricted, especially in criticizing the government. Islam is the state religion, and minorities face discrimination and violence. Civil society groups are also restricted due to foreign funding controls.

India

• Climate Change: India faces increased flooding, droughts, and heatwaves, which affect agricultural lands and increase water stress. These impacts could contribute to resource-based conflicts and inter-ethnic violence.
• Security Risks: The government's failure to protect religious minorities and its use of counterterrorism laws to suppress dissent has contributed to rising violence. The revocation of special autonomy in Kashmir and the marginalization of Muslims under the Modi government are particularly concerning.
• Civil Liberties: Freedom of expression and media freedom are under threat. Scheduled Castes and Tribes face ongoing discrimination, and the LGBT+ community experiences widespread legal and societal discrimination.

Indonesia

• Climate Change: Indonesia is vulnerable to sea-level rise, forest fires, and extreme weather events. These impact agriculture, water security, and ecosystems.
• Security Risks: The separatist movement in Papua and radical Islamist violence are exacerbated by climate change-related displacement and resource competition.
• Civil Liberties: Blasphemy and defamation laws restrict freedom of expression. Religious minorities face discrimination and violence. NGOs and environmental activists are monitored and suppressed by the government. Papuans and ethnic Chinese are marginalized, and the LGBT+ community faces legal and societal discrimination.

The Philippines

• Climate Change: The Philippines is highly vulnerable due to its geography and exposure to cyclones. Climate change impacts include food insecurity, water shortages, and damage to infrastructure.
• Security Risks: Insurgencies by Moro nationalist groups and the New People's Army are likely to be exacerbated by climate-induced poverty and instability.
• Civil Liberties: Journalists face significant risks, with many murdered or threatened. The government has suppressed civil society, particularly those advocating for land and environmental rights. The LGBT+ community experiences legal and societal discrimination.

Thailand

• Climate Change: Thailand is vulnerable to flooding, sea-level rise, and droughts, which threaten its tourism and agricultural sectors. These environmental changes could worsen existing social issues like political unrest and inequality.
• Security Risks: The country has long-standing insurgencies in southern provinces, fueled by socio-economic and political grievances. The rise of extremist Buddhism is also a concern.
• Civil Liberties: Freedom of expression is restricted, especially regarding the monarchy and Buddhism. Civil society groups promoting democracy and human rights face criminalization. The LGBT+ community and indigenous hill communities are marginalized and face discrimination.

Key Findings

• The Indo-Pacific region is highly vulnerable to climate change, which can exacerbate existing security risks and contribute to new conflicts.
• Climate change effects, such as resource scarcity, environmental migration, and health risks, can increase social and economic tensions.
• The erosion of civil liberties—freedom of expression, media freedom, freedom of belief, and civil society freedom—fuels conflict and instability.
• All five countries show worrying trends in the suppression of dissent and marginalization of under-represented groups.
• The report emphasizes the need for a broader, more integrated approach to addressing climate security and civil liberties issues.